According to the newly released OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, global agricultural production is set to grow 14% over the next decade. The report-jointly published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations-offers a detailed look at where production gains are likely and how they might reshape commodity markets worldwide.

Production Drivers and Regional Impact The bulk of the growth will come from yield improvements and limited land expansion, particularly in developing regions such as Central America and India. For the U.S., this could spell increased competition, especially in grains and oilseeds.

• Wheat production is expected to jump by 74 million metric tons (mmt), reaching 874 mmt globally. India alone will account for 29% of this growth.

• Global corn production is projected to climb by 188 mmt, reaching 1.4 billion metric tons. Key contributors include the U.S. (+33 mmt), Brazil (+32 mmt), and China (+27 mmt)-largely driven by technological advancements and better agronomic practices.

• Soybeans will continue to expand, albeit at a slower rate. Global crush demand will increase by 62 mmt, compared to a 95 mmt increase in the previous decade.

These forecasts come amid rising adoption of precision agriculture, improved tillage systems, and enhanced farming practices that together contribute to sustained production gains. However, they also bring a critical implication: crop prices may remain flat or fall below break-even for extended periods, especially during bumper crop years.

Strategic Implications for U.S. Producers For U.S. growers, the message is clear: waiting for the market to rebound may no longer be a viable strategy. Instead, proactive risk management and strategic marketing plans are more essential than ever.

• Monitor price rallies and be ready to act-high global supplies can cap gains quickly.

• Diversify marketing tools: cash sales, futures, and options should be balanced to manage margin risk.

• Consider forward selling, even multiple years ahead, to leverage market carry and lock in profits.

• Be prepared for the unexpected: weather events or geopolitical tensions can quickly disrupt supply and demand forecasts.

Plan Ahead with Expert Guidance Producers are encouraged to work with agricultural marketing professionals to tailor strategies that fit their specific operation size, crop mix, and financial goals. Effective communication, scenario planning, and disciplined execution can help farms stay resilient and profitable amid uncertain conditions.

As global output climbs and competition intensifies, strategic marketing may be the defining skill set for the next decade in U.S. agriculture.