The global oilseed market is under increasing pressure as a convergence of supply gluts, geopolitical disputes, and policy shifts alter trade flows and pricing. Throughout late 2025, U.S. and Canadian soybean and rapeseed harvests have added downward weight on global markets. In parallel, China's retaliatory actions against U.S. and Canadian tariffs have had severe consequences for North American oilseed exports.

U.S. soybean exports to China have come to a halt, a direct response to the latest U.S. tariff packages. Similarly, China ceased imports of Canadian rapeseed, reacting to Canada's new tariffs on electric vehicles. These retaliations hit two of the world's most critical oilseed exporters at peak harvest, deepening market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Ukraine introduced a 10% export duty on both soybeans and rapeseed. This has led exporters to reduce farmgate prices, anticipating the cost of new duties. Traders in Europe report sluggish buying due to confusion around the new regulations.

In its September report, the International Grains Council (IGC) noted that average global export prices, tracked by the IGC GOI sub-index, were marginally firmer, boosted by gains in U.S. and Brazilian FOB quotations. Chicago soybean futures climbed 3% between August 20 and mid-September, largely due to suboptimal Midwest weather impacting yield expectations. Crop condition ratings declined, adding bullish sentiment despite weak international demand.

Soy oil prices provided crucial support, offsetting sluggish purchases from Chinese processors, who remain on the sidelines. Still, U.S. Gulf FOB prices rose 1% to $409/ton, while in Brazil, Paranaguá soy export values increased 1% year over year to $448/ton, driven by strong Chinese demand and local biofuel use. Brazilian crushers are increasingly utilizing soy oil for renewable fuel production, lending domestic support.

The rapeseed market tells a different story. ICE canola futures in Canada fell 3% month over month, dragged down by advancing harvests and improving yield outlooks. Persistent concerns over Chinese demand weakness and a drop in rapeseed oil purchases contributed to the softness. Accordingly, Vancouver FOB values for rapeseed declined by $23 to $479/ton.

Data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) adds context. In August, global vegetable oil prices rose 1.4%, hitting their highest point since July 2022. Gains in palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils outweighed the slight decline in soy oil. Palm oil prices surged for a third consecutive month, boosted by global import demand and Indonesia's upcoming biodiesel mandate expansion planned for 2026.

Tightened supplies in the Black Sea and European markets lifted sunflower and rapeseed oil prices, even as soy oil edged lower due to strong global supply expectations for 2025-26.

From a domestic lens, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reported in its May 2025 Oil Crops Outlook that U.S. soybean export sales have been sluggish, squeezed by aggressive Brazilian and Argentine shipments during the critical U.S. export window (October to December).

China's rapeseed crush is also forecast lower, in response to dwindling Canadian imports. Having slapped tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in August and its byproducts earlier in the year, China is pivoting its procurement. The ERS projects higher rapeseed meal imports from Russia and India, further rerouting global oilseed trade.

For U.S. producers, co-ops, and exporters, the months ahead will remain challenging. Weak export demand, oversupply concerns, and foreign policy uncertainties are compounding market risks. Meanwhile, logistics, biofuel policies, and currency shifts remain key watchpoints.

In the broader view, the oilseed sector is being reshaped not just by weather and yields, but by the volatile intersection of trade policy and energy demand. As global buyers recalibrate and exporters adjust pricing strategies, stakeholders across the U.S. agriculture sector must stay alert to fast-moving developments.