Grain markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday, August 5, as investors weighed improving weather forecasts across the U.S. Corn Belt against expectations for the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due next week. While corn and soybean futures lost ground, fresh export activity, record June shipments and resilient ethanol production underscored that demand remains supportive. The report matters because it could redefine yield expectations, influence commodity prices and shape marketing decisions for producers heading into harvest.

The session reflected a market still searching for direction. Technical selling pressured both corn and soybean contracts, while traders shifted their attention toward forecasts calling for beneficial rainfall across much of the Midwest. After periods of extreme heat in late July, improved moisture is expected to help stabilize crop conditions and protect yield potential. Weather has once again become the dominant driver, temporarily overshadowing positive demand indicators that have supported the market throughout the summer. Analysts increasingly believe that next week's USDA WASDE report will provide the next major catalyst by updating production estimates, export projections and ending stocks.

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Corn Prices Continue to Face Technical Pressure

Corn futures extended recent losses despite another significant export announcement. Private exporters reported the sale of 4.7 million bushels of corn to Mexico, with 25% scheduled for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year and the remaining 75% destined for 2027-28. Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.107 million barrels per day during the week ending July 31. Although output eased slightly from the previous week, production remained above the important 1.1 million barrel threshold, signaling continued strength in domestic corn demand. June export data also reached historic levels, reinforcing the longer-term demand outlook even as futures struggled to gain momentum.

Corn Market Snapshot

Source: USDA / U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Soybeans Wait for Fresh USDA Signals

Soybean futures followed corn lower as traders questioned whether prices could return to the $12 per bushel benchmark before harvest. Market participants now look toward the August WASDE report for possible surprises that could tighten supplies or adjust yield forecasts. Analysts also expect USDA's weekly export report to show soybean sales between 36.7 million and 80.8 million bushels, while soymeal exports are projected between 150,000 and 300,000 metric tons. International developments remain supportive after China's state grain reserve company, Sinograin, auctioned imported soybean inventories, fueling speculation that storage is being cleared ahead of future U.S. purchases.

Soybean Market Expectations

Source: USDA.

Wheat Finds Support While Global Demand Stays Active

Unlike corn and soybeans, winter wheat futures attracted bargain buying after recent declines from multiyear highs. Traders continue monitoring geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region and the Middle East while awaiting USDA's export figures. Analysts expect weekly wheat export sales between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels, while Algeria purchased between 11 million and 18.7 million bushels through an international tender, with France and Germany expected to supply most of the cargoes. The combination of international demand and geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide underlying support for wheat prices despite broader weakness across agricultural commodities.

Wheat Market Overview

Source:  USDA.