The U.S. grain markets showed renewed strength ahead of the July 4 holiday, with corn and soybean futures closing higher in Tuesday's session. A mix of technical trading, stronger-than-expected export sales, and evolving weather models helped fuel the rally.

Corn prices led the advance, with July futures climbing 3.75¢ to close at $4.33, and September futures up 3¢ at $4.21. Spot basis bids remained steady to firm across much of the Midwest, indicating solid end-user demand, particularly in Iowa and Ohio. Weekly corn export sales totaled 5.9 million bushels, aligned with analyst expectations, and brought the season's cumulative commitments to 58 million bushels. Year-to-date, corn exports have reached 2.213 billion bushels, putting the U.S. ahead of last year's pace.

The soybean complex also saw strength, with July futures up 4.75¢ to $10.5525, and August contracts inching up 0.75¢ to $10.5425. Soy basis bids improved at several Midwestern terminals, climbing 3 to 10¢ in some locations. Soybean export sales reached 25.8 million bushels, bolstered by a 62% increase in old-crop purchases. Key buying countries included Mexico, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Malaysia, all contributing to the positive tone.

By contrast, wheat markets remained under pressure, with September Chicago soft red winter (SRW) futures down nearly 7¢ to $5.5675, and Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts also slipping. Despite an early-season boost in export sales, which totaled 47.4 million bushels for 2025/26 marketing year, ample global supplies and slow U.S. shipment rates continue to weigh on sentiment. Weekly wheat exports reached 20.3 million bushels, led by strong demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia.

The rally in grains is closely tied to weather developments. Forecasts from NOAA project 0.75 to 2 of rainfall across the Corn Belt through the weekend, which could enhance soil moisture levels and support crop yields. The longer-range forecast shows a pattern of continued precipitation and cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Plains in mid-July-conditions that could stabilize the corn and soybean growing season.

Beyond weather, technical buying also played a role in lifting grain futures, particularly in corn, where fund traders were seen squaring positions ahead of the break. With managed money previously holding large short positions, the recent price move may reflect a partial short-covering rally.

On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. labor market remains resilient. New data show non-farm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, modestly beating expectations and helping lift investor confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 344 points, buoyed by labor strength and easing inflation indicators.

As markets close for the Independence Day holiday, traders will return Friday, July 5, with renewed focus on mid-July weather, upcoming USDA reports, and continued monitoring of global export trends. Analysts caution that volatility remains high, particularly if crop condition ratings or international developments shift unexpectedly.