The ongoing federal government shutdown - now the longest on record - is beginning to exert real pressure on the U.S. agriculture sector. With key USDA crop, export and supply-demand reports unavailable, grain traders and producers are navigating markets with limited visibility, increasing day-to-day volatility and speculation.

On Thursday, soybeans led the decline, shedding more than 2%, while corn futures slipped 1.25% to 1.5% lower. Winter wheat contracts posted some of the sharpest losses, with several falling more than 3%.

Market participants point to a combination of factors:

• Lack of official export data, now missing for six consecutive weeks

• Uncertainty surrounding Chinese buying commitments

• Broader risk-off pressure in commodities and equities

• Seasonal harvest pressure and repositioning

Weather and Macroeconomic Conditions

The Great Lakes are expected to see up to 0.75" of rain over the next several days, with additional spot showers possible across the Corn Belt. A new NOAA 8-14 day outlook suggests warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the Midwest and Plains - weather that could influence late-fieldwork and fall fertilizer applications.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street, the Dow fell 238 points, pressured by declines in AI-linked equities and rising layoff numbers. Energy markets were mixed, and the U.S. Dollar weakened, providing only limited support to ag commodities.

Corn: Prices Drop on Technical Selling

Despite generally solid demand tone, corn felt the weight of the broader commodity selloff.

• December 2025 Corn (ZCZ25) closed at $4.2875, down 6.5 cents.

• Analysts estimate weekly corn export sales at 31.5M to 78.7M bushels, but no official data was available.

Top buyers so far this marketing year include Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Spain.

Brazil's Anec projects November corn exports near 219.4M bushels, up 13.2% year-over-year, continuing the country's strong global export presence.

Six-Month Corn Futures Performance (ZCZ25)

Soybeans: China Demand Recovery in Question

Soybean futures suffered the steepest losses of the session, pressured by renewed doubts about whether China will follow through on recently signaled purchases of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans.

• January 2026 Soybeans (ZSF26) fell 26.75 cents to $11.0750.

• Analysts estimate weekly soybean export sales between 14.7M and 73.5M bushels.

Brazil remains a strong competitor:
Anec expects October soybean exports at 138.5M bushels, up 61.1% YoY - reinforcing Brazil's expanding global footprint.

Six-Month Soybean Futures Performance (ZSF26)

Wheat: Heavy Losses Across Chicago SRW

Wheat futures faced double-digit declines, with December SRW falling 19.25 cents to $5.3550. Without USDA export data, analysts estimate U.S. wheat exports at 9.2M to 23.9M bushels for the latest week.

Six-Month Chicago SRW Futures Performance (ZWZ25)