The global food system is facing a new shock. On March 28, 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions, are already impacting global trade flows, with direct consequences for U.S. agriculture, input costs, and global food security.

According to FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero, tanker traffic through the Strait has collapsed by more than 90% in just days, disrupting a corridor that typically carries around 35% of global crude oil, 20% of LNG, and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers. The result is not just an energy issue-it is a systemic shock to global agrifood systems.

For U.S. farmers, the implications are immediate and tangible. Rising fuel prices increase operational costs across planting, irrigation, and logistics, while the surge in fertilizer prices threatens margins ahead of the 2026 growing season. FAO data shows urea prices jumping 19% in the Middle East and 28% in Egypt, signaling global upward pressure that will inevitably reach North American markets.

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The situation is particularly critical because the Gulf region supplies nearly half of global sulfur trade, a key input for producing phosphate fertilizers. Any disruption in sulfur availability directly affects fertilizer production capacity, tightening supply chains and increasing costs worldwide.

"Farmers are facing a dual cost shock," Torero warned, pointing to the combined effect of higher fertilizer and fuel prices. In response, producers may reduce input use or shift toward less input-intensive crops-decisions that could ultimately lower yields and tighten global supply.

FAO projections suggest fertilizer prices could remain 15-20% higher during the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Given the nonlinear relationship between fertilizer use and yields, even modest reductions in application could result in disproportionate declines in crop output, especially for key staples like corn, wheat, and rice.

The duration of the disruption will define the scale of impact. A short-term interruption of less than a month could be absorbed by existing global stocks, allowing markets to stabilize within a few months. However, a prolonged disruption of three months or more could significantly alter planting decisions, reduce yields, and increase reliance on alternative crops such as soybeans, which require less nitrogen fertilizer.

For the United States, this scenario introduces additional volatility into an already complex agricultural outlook shaped by energy markets, biofuel demand, and global trade dynamics. Higher oil prices could also stimulate biofuel production, increasing demand for agricultural commodities and further tightening supply.

Beyond production, the crisis also raises concerns about global food security, particularly in import-dependent regions across Asia and Africa. Any additional export restrictions or supply chain disruptions could amplify price volatility and create ripple effects across global markets-including those closely linked to U.S. exports.

FAO is urging coordinated international action, including the creation of alternative trade corridors, financial support for vulnerable countries, and long-term investments in sustainable agriculture and fertilizer innovation, such as green ammonia.

In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is a reminder that agriculture is no longer insulated from global shocks-and that the resilience of U.S. farming now depends as much on international stability as on domestic conditions.