Sen. Joni Ernst, 55, will not seek a third term in 2026, according to multiple media reports. A military veteran and Iowa's first female U.S. senator, Ernst has been a key Republican voice on ag policy since her Senate debut in 2015. She has served on the Senate Agriculture Committee throughout her tenure and recently launched the bipartisan Senate Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Caucus.

Ernst's departure makes her the sixth member of the current Senate Ag Committee-split evenly between parties-not returning for the 120th Congress. This turnover could significantly shift the future of farm legislation and rural priorities in Washington.

CBS News first reported her decision. Her office has not issued a public statement.

Ashley Hinson Poised as GOP Frontrunner

The focus now turns to Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican representing Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. According to Iowa political analyst Dennis Goldford, it's a "fairly open secret" that Hinson plans to enter the race.

Hinson brings a strong ag portfolio. She led the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act, targeting California's Proposition 12. She recently followed with the Save Our Bacon Act, aiming to prevent states from interfering with livestock production standards across state lines.

Hinson also co-chairs the Biofuels Caucus and has long advocated for year-round E-15 ethanol access, positioning herself as a formidable candidate with deep ties to Iowa's ag sector.

GOP leadership has long floated her as Ernst's natural successor, seeing Hinson as capable of energizing the base while carrying the state's increasingly conservative vote. Donald Trump won Iowa in both 2020 and 2024, although Democrats still see an opportunity in an open-seat race.

Democrats Mobilize Early

Despite Iowa's red shift in recent cycles, the lack of an incumbent makes the 2026 race "a lot more interesting," Goldford says.

At least five Democratic candidates have already declared their campaigns, including Iowa Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris. The crowded field reflects national Democratic hopes of flipping a Senate seat in a battleground farm state.

Democrats note that Barack Obama carried Iowa in both 2008 and 2012, suggesting the state is not entirely out of reach.

Political Fallout and National Stakes

Ernst's decision comes after a turbulent summer. In June, she sparked controversy during a town hall when she said "we are all going to die" in response to a constituent criticizing Medicaid cuts in Donald Trump's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill." The moment went viral and has been used in attack ads since.

More broadly, her retirement contributes to a wave of Senate exits. Besides Ernst, Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Tina Smith (D-MN), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) are either retiring or seeking other offices, further shaking up committee leadership dynamics, especially for ag-related policy.

What's Next for Iowa Ag Representation?

Sen. Chuck Grassley, Iowa's senior senator, remains a key figure at age 91, but the state's future Senate leadership could shift drastically depending on 2026's outcome.

With major ag issues-including the next farm bill, biofuels policy, crop insurance, and federal support for livestock producers-hanging in the balance, Iowa voters will soon be choosing between two very different visions for rural America.