In a notable shift, Mexico overtook the U.S. in August 2025 to become Brazil's second-largest beef export destination, the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec) announced. Brokers and policymakers alike are watching closely as trade lanes reconfigure amid heightened tariff pressure.

Between August 1-25, Brazil sent approximately 10,200 metric tons of beef to Mexico, valued at $58.8 million, eclipsing the 7,800 tons ($43.6 million) shipped to the U.S.

Sharper tariffs, redirected trade flows

The realignment stems from President Trump's imposition of a steep 50% tariff starting August 6, on top of an existing 26.4% levy outside U.S. quotas-tilting economics sharply against the U.S. market.

Analysts now expect a reconfiguration of global beef flows-Mexico and Australia could send more to the U.S., while Brazil actively seeks alternative outlets.

Record growth in exports to Mexico

Brazil's beef exports to Mexico surged, clocking 67,659 tons ($365 million) January to July 2025-nearly triple the volume from the same period in 2024. Exports in 2024 and 2023 stood near 46,000 tons and just 5,000 tons, respectively.

Certification capacity expansion underway

A Brazilian governmental delegation is now in Mexico, pushing for a free trade agreement and extension of the Pacic anti-inflation package. Meanwhile, Mexico plans audits of 14 more Brazilian meatpacking plants (e.g., JBS, Marfrig, BRF), adding to the 35 already cleared-to manage the export surge.

U.S. remains critical, but pivots needed

Abiec affirmed that while Mexico's market is booming, the U.S. remains a large and extremely important market for Brazilian exporters. Dialogue continues with both Brazilian and U.S. stakeholders to re-establish trade ties.

Policy & Ag Sector Analysis

This episode underscores several key themes for U.S. agriculture professionals:

• Tariffs reshape demand: A strategic policy decision in Washington reverberated across hemispheres, showcasing how agricultural trade lanes can shift rapidly.

• Supply chain resilience: Brazil's agility in scaling exports to Mexico and pursuing new certifications, FTA talks, and trade corridor expansion underscores the importance of agricultural adaptability.

• U.S. dependency risk: Facing historically low cattle inventories, the U.S. could see import prices climb and sourcing diversify away from traditional partners.

• Opportunity for nearshoring: Mexico's close geography, lower logistics cost, and integration under USMCA make it a strategic hub-aligning with global trends like nearshoring and friend-shoring.

• Sector investments: Certification expansions by Mexican authorities and infrastructural responsiveness signal further agribusiness investment opportunities in both export processing and transportation networks.