Grain marketing is a dynamic landscape, and this October, corn and soybean producers should keep close watch on three emerging fundamentals that could define the final quarter of 2025.

In August, futures markets for both crops stood at a critical tipping point. Prices rallied, fueled by concerns over weather, disease, and production risks. As combines roll into fields across the Corn Belt, yield realities are coming into clearer view - and could trigger the next round of price volatility.

Harvest Results Raise Red Flags

Early anecdotal reports from farmers and agronomists suggest that actual yields may fall short of prior expectations. Issues like Southern rust in corn and drought stress in soybeans, particularly in the eastern Midwest, are showing up in the field.

This has analysts asking: Will the October WASDE reflect these challenges? USDA's September estimates already trimmed corn yield to 186.7 bushels per acre, down from 188.8. However, many in the trade believe this figure still overstates true potential, and that further cuts could be imminent.

The same applies to soybeans, where the USDA made only a minor adjustment - a 0.1 drop to 53.5 bushels per acre - despite a hot and dry August in key growing regions. The October 9 WASDE report could revise these numbers lower, especially if more widespread confirmation of crop stress emerges.

These updates are critical because yield reductions can significantly tighten the global balance sheet, reshaping the exportable surplus and altering trade flows. For farmers, this could mean new pricing opportunities - or the need for quick decision-making under pressure.

WASDE Report and Demand Side Uncertainty

Beyond supply-side changes, the demand outlook is also under scrutiny. Soybean exports remain sluggish, and the USDA may be forced to lower export demand projections. For corn, traders are watching the feed and residual use category, currently pegged at 6.1 billion bushels, to see if it too will be adjusted downward.

The October WASDE may mark a key inflection point - not just for yields, but also for how USDA frames domestic and global demand in a softening macroeconomic environment.

Trade Tensions with China Add Volatility

Further compounding the uncertainty is the pending trade meeting between former President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for October 31 at the APEC summit in South Korea. The outcome of that meeting could have major implications for U.S. grain exports, especially soybeans.

At the same time, a legal battle over Trump-era tariffs is working its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, with a ruling expected no earlier than November. If the court strikes down the tariffs, China and other trade partners could seek refunds or delay finalizing deals, injecting more volatility into market expectations.

This legal backdrop could dampen hopes for swift trade deals, and any signs of stall tactics from Beijing may reflect a wait-and-see approach on the court's decision. That delay could suppress demand outlooks just as harvest pressure peaks.

Prepare to Act, Not React

Grain marketing in October demands clarity, preparation, and agility. With fundamentals evolving weekly, farmers should be ready to act on price moves rather than react to them after the fact. This means knowing break-even points, having pricing targets, and using tools like hedging or forward contracts to manage exposure.

The truth of the market will come from the fields. As Naomi Blohm, Senior Market Advisor with Total Farm Marketing, puts it: "Combines will tell the truth." The on-the-ground yield reports will either support or challenge the assumptions built into current prices - and savvy marketers will be ready for either scenario.

Whether it's capturing a pricing window or managing downside risk, grain marketing is how you get paid. In a month filled with potential catalysts - from WASDE updates to trade shifts - being positioned and informed is not optional, it's essential.