The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a stellar 2025 corn harvest, lifting production to approximately 16.74 billion bushels-a new all-time high-driven by record-setting yields of 188.8 bushels per acre and expanded acreage.

Exports also surged: USDA adjusted its forecasts upward by 100 million bushels, bringing total corn exports to a record 2.75 billion bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year. This relentless pace-nearly on track with the record 2020-21 season-reflects broad international demand outside of China.

However, the boom comes with downsides. Investors and farmers now face steep price declines: corn futures plunged to five-year lows, dragged down by oversupply and weak demand elasticity. Despite strong exports, ending stocks ballooned-surging by hundreds of millions of bushels-and prices were clawed lower: season-average farm price forecasts now stand near $3.90 per bushel, down from last year.

For many producers, the result is bittersweet. High yields may mask underlying financial stress: input costs remain elevated, and the lower price environment squeezes margins, with some family farms reporting difficulty covering operating loans.

This harvest's silver lining is qualified: export demand has rescued significant volume, yet slipping prices and swelling stocks signal lingering headwinds. The "asterisk" looming large: record numbers may not translate into record profits or prosperity for all.