This year has seen escalating concern over U.S. import tariffs and their ripple effects across the global food supply chain. As costs rise and trade routes shift, the refrigerated cargo sector-critical for transporting perishables-is facing increasing pressure.

In a recent Journal of Commerce webinar, Thomas Eskesen, CEO of Eskesen Advisory, and Bruce Marshall, Head of Reefer Solutions at A.P. Moller-Maersk, outlined the three primary challenges affecting the industry.

1. Tariffs Are Reshaping Supply Chains
Eskesen warned that U.S. tariff policy is forcing companies to rethink sourcing. For example, a 30% duty on South African imports is not a simple price increase-it forces U.S. importers to restructure entire supply chains, often at high logistical and operational costs.

"We thought tariffs were in the 10% range, but now there's much greater variability," Eskesen said. These shifting rates are destabilizing long-established supplier relationships, especially in seasonal categories like fruits and vegetables.

"Food inflation is inevitable," he added, pointing to growing concern among U.S. consumers.

2. Finding New Markets Is Not Easy
Exporters affected by tariffs are now racing to identify alternative markets-but that process isn't quick. It involves re-routing cargo, adjusting to longer shipping lanes, and securing capacity in a congested maritime sector, especially for temperature-sensitive cargo.

"For fresh produce or frozen goods, this becomes logistically intense," Eskesen explained. While he expects things to stabilize next season, the adjustment won't be easy.

Bruce Marshall added that shipping flows haven't changed significantly-yet-which suggests that consumers, not exporters, may bear the brunt of higher costs.

3. Uncertainty Reigns in the Short Term
With tariffs frequently changing, businesses are stuck in a "wait-and-see" mode. Shifting suppliers or destinations takes time-and that's assuming regulatory requirements can even be met.

"Labels are already printed. Fruit may be treated with substances allowed in one market but banned in another," Marshall said. "You can't just flip a switch."

Eskesen also noted that tariff rates vary by country, often based on trade deficits or political motives, further complicating global planning.

"I don't think this will make America great again," he added with irony. "You can't grow bananas in Michigan."

So far, U.S. consumers have been shielded by stockpiled inventory, but that buffer is wearing thin. Eskesen predicts a visible impact on grocery prices will soon ignite public pressure to reassess the tariff approach.