A long-term analysis of grain and oilseed balances reveals a stark pattern: the rest of the world (ROW)-excluding the United States, China, and South America-has operated under a persistent production deficit for over four decades. Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data, this shortfall has widened by 0.78 million metric tons (MMT) per year since 1980, even as it narrows slightly relative to growing domestic consumption.

Between 1981-1985 and 2021-2025, ROW's average annual production deficit climbed from 107 MMT to 141 MMT. Despite increased trade, this rising dependence on imports has broad implications for global supply chains, food security, and especially U.S. crop prices.

As expected, the ROW net import volume-imports minus exports-has surged in tandem with the production gap, increasing by 0.70 MMT annually. This trade imbalance underscores the expanding role of the U.S. and major exporters in balancing global demand, while raising concerns about long-term resilience in import-dependent regions.

Regional Contrasts Are Stark

Not all regions are contributing equally. Former Soviet Union countries swung from a -37 MMT deficit in the early 1980s to a +110 MMT surplus today, a turnaround echoed in South America's own 167 MMT increase. Meanwhile, Oceania more than doubled its surplus, from 18 to 40 MMT.

In contrast, four key deficit regions-Middle East, Southeast Asia, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa-each saw their production shortfalls grow by over 35 MMT, collectively eclipsing the gains from the 12 former Soviet republics. Notably, even North America (excluding the U.S.) lost ground, shrinking its annual surplus from +18 MMT to +1 MMT.

Impact on U.S. Crop Prices

Crucially, this growing ROW deficit has direct pricing implications. A regression analysis shows that fluctuations in ROW's annual production deficit as a percentage of its domestic consumption explain 16% of the yearly changes in the U.S. composite grain-oilseed price-a higher share than the influence from China and South America combined (5%).

Even more telling: while the U.S. domestic surplus accounts for 29% of price variability, the ROW's influence is significantly stronger than traditionally acknowledged. Interestingly, despite rising tonnage, ROW's production deficit as a percentage of consumption has decreased from 10.1% in 1981-1985 to 7.5% in 2021-2025, suggesting demand growth is partly driving the volume gap.

Implications for U.S. Agriculture

For U.S. ag professionals-from commodity traders to policy makers-the findings stress that global markets are increasingly dependent on robust U.S. output. With climate volatility, input costs, and geopolitical disruptions pressuring production elsewhere, the U.S. remains pivotal to maintaining equilibrium in the world's grain and oilseed supply.

The analysis also hints that future price risk models, crop insurance strategies, and trade negotiations must account more for ROW dynamics than previously assumed.