U.S. soybean farmers are warning that they "cannot survive" an ongoing trade war with China that has pushed them to a trade and financial precipice, according to the American Soybean Association (ASA)President, Caleb Ragland. In a stark letter to President Trump, accompanied by an 11-page white paper, Ragland makes the case for an urgent deal to remove duties and secure significant soybean purchases from China.

Export sales have collapsed. Fall U.S. soybean crop export commitments are down 81% compared to the five-year average, and we have reached a 20-year low in new-crop export sales. Meanwhile, Chinese tariffs on U.S. beans remain 20% higher than those on South American soy, making U.S. soy "prohibitively expensive" in Chinese markets.

Normally by this time of year, China would have ordered roughly 14% of its expected U.S. soybean purchases-but ahead of the 2022 harvest, it had ordered 27%. Now, as harvest nears, zero future orders have come through, compounding financial pressure.

China's demand shift is clear: between April and July2025, record volumes of Brazilian soybeans flooded the Chinese market. Stockpiles of soymeal grew, pushing margins negative for local processors. In early August, traders even arranged the first-ever export sale of Argentine soymeal to China, aimed at reassuring feed-mill buyers amid fears of a domestic hog-feed shortage.

Without China's demand, U.S. grain movement is slowing-especially in the Northern Plains. Many elevators in North Dakota are warning that over half of the soybean crop may be unable to immediately be delivered during harvest. Grain is piling up, putting pressure on on-farm storage systems across the region. Farmers are reportedly delaying corn harvests or bagging corn to preserve bin space for soybeans-a strategy that may ripple into logistic challenges in Minnesota and South Dakota.

On the policy front, the White House maintains that the President cares deeply about farmers. In a statement to Bloomberg, Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed, "President Trump will continue to open markets and level the playing field for American farmers to ensure they can sell as many made-in-America products as possible." However, with real-time data showing export collapse and cost pressures mounting, many producers are skeptical about how soon that will materialize.