The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported soybean inventories at 1.010 billion bushels as of June 1, a 4% year-over-year increase. The figure exceeded both last year's levels and analyst expectations, which had forecast 980 million bushels.

The inventory surplus pushed soybean futures lower. November contracts dropped 5¼¢ to $10.21¾ per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Soymeal fell $1.70 to $287.60 per short ton, while soyoil inched up 0.17¢ to 52.92¢ per pound.

Corn stocks totaled 4.640 billion bushels, down 7% from a year earlier but in line with estimates. Improved crop ratings-73% of U.S. corn was rated good to excellent, up from 70% a week earlier-also weighed on prices. December corn fell 5¼¢ to $4.20¼ per bushel.

Wheat inventories surged 22% year over year to 851 million bushels, also beating forecasts. Yet wheat futures rose on export optimism, with September contracts gaining 6¼¢ to $5.44½ per bushel. Kansas City wheat added 3¢ to $5.29¾.

USDA Reports Strong Wheat Export Inspections

Wheat inspections for overseas delivery rose to 434,539 metric tons last week, up from 254,882 metric tons the week prior and 335,651 tons a year ago, USDA data show. The surge highlights growing export demand for U.S. wheat.

Soybean inspections also rose slightly to 224,787 metric tons from 201,853, but trailed last year's 319,828 tons. Corn inspections fell to 1.37 million metric tons from 1.5 million the previous week but still outpaced the 831,219 metric tons recorded a year ago.

Since the start of the wheat marketing year on June 1, total inspections have reached 1.28 million metric tons-down from 1.39 million in the same period last year. Corn inspections for the year, which began September 1, now stand at 54.9 million metric tons, well above last year's 42.5 million. Soybean inspections have hit 45.9 million metric tons versus 41.6 million in 2024.

Weather Outlook: Scattered Storms Ahead

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasted possible rain across the Southern Plains and central Iowa throughout the week, including during the July 4th holiday. Strong downpours and straight-line winds are expected in Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, with localized flooding possible.

While severe weather risk remains low, the rainfall could support crop development-though it may also hinder winter wheat harvest in some areas. USDA rated 48% of the winter wheat crop good to excellent, down 1 point from last week. Spring wheat conditions slipped slightly to 53%.

Soybean crop ratings held steady at 66% good to excellent. USDA noted 17% of soybeans were blooming and 3% were setting pods early this week.

Larger-than-expected soybean inventories and strong crop health are putting near-term pressure on prices. Wheat, however, is benefiting from export momentum, particularly if international demand persists and the dollar remains stable.

Traders and producers alike will closely monitor USDA reports and weather patterns as summer crop development progresses. These factors will shape decisions around late planting, harvest timing, and risk management.