After four consecutive sessions of gains, U.S. soybean futures turned lower on Tuesday, marking the first daily decline in over a week. November soybeans closed at $10.3075 per bushel, down 1 cent, after reaching an intraday high of $10.4775. This pullback followed a wave of profit-taking and cautious selling by farmers, prompted in part by lingering uncertainty over a potential U.S.-China trade deal.

While President Trump has suggested optimism ahead of a planned meeting with China's Xi Jinping in Seoul, the market remains skeptical. Analysts note that soybeans are firmly on the radar, but any deal below the scale of past Chinese purchases could leave the market exposed to a weaker demand picture. A failure to reach a soybean-related agreement, they warn, could force the USDA to revise its demand estimates downward, expanding what many already see as a bloated balance sheet.

On the ground, the U.S. soybean harvest is about 73% complete, according to analyst surveys, slightly above the five-year average but behind last year's pace. Meanwhile, soymeal demand continues to offer underlying support, though it has not been enough to offset bearish pressure from macroeconomic trends.

In the broader grain complex, corn futures also gave up ground after a recent rally. December corn dropped 3.5 cents to $4.1975, snapping a five-day win streak. Despite strong U.S. corn exports - up 61% year-over-year - the lack of fresh USDA data due to the government shutdown has left the market in limbo. The absence of October's Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports adds a layer of uncertainty for agronomists and farm marketers.

Meanwhile, wheat prices remain under pressure. Ample global supplies continue to weigh on futures despite an uptick in U.S. export inspections, now running at a 12-year high. Yet, with major producers like Russia raising their production and export estimates, global competition is fierce. The USDA reported 480,614 metric tons of wheat inspected for export last week, with shipments to Nigeria, Thailand and South Korea leading the way.

Weather remains mostly favorable for fieldwork across the Midwest, with dry conditions allowing steady progress on harvest. However, longer-term forecasts from the National Weather Service point to above-normal precipitation in key Corn Belt states through the end of October, which may slow fieldwork in pockets of the region.

For producers and co-ops managing risk into the final stretch of harvest, the market's tone suggests cautious optimism, tempered by macro pressures. The current environment favors disciplined marketing, close monitoring of global trade dynamics, and strategic use of crop insurance tools to manage revenue volatility heading into 2026.