Soybean producers are teetering on the brink of economic collapse as export demand from China-typically the single-largest buyer-is effectively halted. In a letter dated August 19, 2025, the American Soybean Association (ASA) warned the White House that "soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress. Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer."

The crisis stems from China's decision to divert purchases to Brazilian soy, leaving no contracts in place for the U.S. fall harvest. Historically, by this point in the season, China had secured approximately 14% of its anticipated U.S. soybean purchases; by contrast, ahead of the 2022 harvest, it had booked 27%.

Consequently, export sales of the U.S. new-crop soybean are down an alarming 81% compared to the five-year average. In the Northern Plains-an export-heavy region-there are zero export bookings on record. Local elevators warn that without crush plants or export business, grain movement will grind to a halt, and many growers are having to hold their crops on the farm.

Further compounding the strain, November futures soybean prices have slid 5% (about 51¢/bushel) from mid-July through early August, while regional cash prices across the Dakotas and Nebraska also fell sharply.

Beijing's aggressive sourcing from Brazil appears unrelenting: between April and July 2025, China imported record volumes of Brazilian soy, building soymeal stockpiles that are now pressuring local processors. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers turned to Argentine soymeal-a first-for fall delivery, likely a hedge against U.S. trade uncertainty.

Industry analysts emphasize the urgency: "The further into the autumn we get without reaching an agreement with China on soybeans, the worse the impacts will be on U.S. soybean farmers." This warning comes as the White House has so far offered no formal response.

Meanwhile, broader data reinforces the outlook: as of July 24, U.S. exporters had locked in just over 3 million metric tons of soy for the 2025-26 season-a 20-year low-and 12% below last year's levels. Notably, China has yet to make a single purchase for the new crop, an unprecedented delay since at least 1999.

Analysis & Industry Context:
This downturn signals a convergence of challenges-soaring input costs (seed, fertilizer, machinery), collapsing export demand, and geopolitical trade friction-all while co-ops, precision ag investment, and risk-management tools like crop insurance offer limited buffer. The USDA's farm bill safety nets may soon encounter pressure from lobbying for expanded support, highlighting the need for a dual-pronged approach: market diversification and trade diplomacy. The supply chain risks extend to transport, logistics, and livestock feed availability, especially as harvest volumes rise into October.

Without swift resolution, the U.S. soybean sector may face structural damage: acreage reallocations, long-term loss of market share in China, and mounting input debt cycles for farmers already operating on thin margins.