On February 5, 2026, U.S. grain markets saw a robust rally, led by soybean futures, which climbed 1.75% to 2% across several contracts. The catalyst? A social media post from former President Donald Trump that reignited hopes for major soybean purchases by China. In his message, Trump projected 20 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean imports this year and 25 MMT next year. The impact was immediate: soybean contracts climbed above $11 per bushel, energizing corn and wheat markets despite tepid export data from the USDA.

A pesar de alcanzar un mínimo de ventas de exportación en la campaña comercial, de tan solo 16,1 millones de bushels , los comerciantes realizaron compras técnicas agresivas , con la esperanza de que las declaraciones de Trump impulsaran una renovada demanda china . Los datos del USDA mostraron que las ventas acumuladas para la campaña comercial 2025-26 se situaron un 20 % por debajo de las del año anterior, situándose en 805,8 millones de bushels . Sin embargo, los envíos semanales de exportación mejoraron un 9 % , alcanzando un total de 51 millones de bushels , con China, México, Egipto, Vietnam y Pakistán entre los principales destinos.

Los precios del maíz se recuperan a pesar de la caída de las exportaciones

Corn futures joined the upswing, buoyed by technical buying and spillover strength from soybeans. March contracts rose 5.5 cents to $4.35, while May climbed 6 cents to $4.43. However, the USDA reported exports down 37% from the prior week, totaling just 41.6 million bushels-a 42% drop from the prior four-week average. Still, cumulative corn sales remain 31% ahead year-over-year, reaching 1.308 billion bushels. Top destinations included Japan, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and Spain.

El trigo sube por el temor a la destrucción invernal y el apoyo indirecto

Winter wheat futures also posted healthy gains amid concerns about winterkill in parts of the U.S., northern Europe, and Russia. Strength in the soybean market contributed additional momentum. March Chicago SRW rose 8.5 cents to $5.3525, while Kansas City HRW climbed 8.25 cents to $5.3850. Combined old and new crop export sales reached 15.2 million bushels, a 33% weekly drop, but still 3% above the four-week average. Shipments improved 32%, with Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam as top buyers.

Perspectivas sobre políticas y márgenes agrícolas

Beyond market movement, Illinois farmer Heather Hampton Knodle voiced concern over the absence of a new farm bill and a general lack of policy clarity. "You can't make up for a two-year planting cycle in a one-week rally," she emphasized. Meanwhile, ag economist David Kohl reminded farmers that high-margin years are rare, noting that in only two out of every ten years, everything aligns for strong profits. For the remaining years, producers must aim to simply break even or slightly above, focusing on tight farm management and risk mitigation strategies.

Dry conditions are expected across most of the central U.S. through the weekend, with isolated showers possible in the eastern Corn Belt. NOAA's 8-to-14-day forecast (Feb. 12-18) predicts wetter-than-normal conditions across the Midwest and Plains, with above-average temperatures likely for much of the country-a key factor for winter wheat resilience and early-season soil prep.