Soybean futures extended their rally on February 11, 2026, while corn prices struggled for direction and winter wheat posted solid gains, as traders reacted to export expectations, improving ethanol production and global weather disruptions that could reshape short-term commodity flows. The moves matter for U.S. producers because they influence farm income, basis levels, export competitiveness and biofuel demand at a critical moment in the 2025/26 marketing year .

After sliding for three consecutive weeks, U.S. ethanol production rebounded to a daily average of 1.110 million barrels for the week ending February 6, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, providing underlying support to corn demand. Ethanol inventories ticked slightly higher, signaling stable blending activity.

Meanwhile, private exporters reported the sale of 9.1 million bushels of corn to unknown destinations for the current marketing year, reinforcing steady export interest despite mixed futures performance.

Corn futures delivered a mixed performance, with nearby contracts easing while deferred months posted modest gains.

March 2026 Corn Futures Performance

Analysts ahead of USDA's weekly export sales report expect:

Brazil remains a competitive force. The exporter group Anec estimates February corn exports at 37.53 million bushels, up nearly 6.3 million bushels from last week's projection, adding pressure to global supply dynamics .

Soybeans overcame modest overnight losses and finished higher for the fifth time in six sessions, supported by technical buying and expectations of steady export demand.

March 2026 Soybean Futures Performance

The broader soy complex was mixed:

Export expectations ahead of USDA's report include:

Brazil's soybean export pace remains aggressive, with February shipments projected at 430.22 million bushels, up 10.66 million bushels from the prior week's estimate . That expansion continues to intensify competition with U.S. exporters in Asian markets.

Winter wheat futures staged a notable rebound midweek, fueled by weather-related shipment delays in Russia and mounting winterkill concerns across key production regions.

March 2026 Wheat Futures Performance

Export projections ahead of USDA's report:

European Commission data show EU soft wheat exports at 493.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year through February 8, a modest year-over-year increase .

Outside the grain complex, energy futures firmed, with Brent crude climbing above $69 per barrel, while the U.S. dollar softened slightly. A better-than-expected U.S. jobs report showed 130,000 new jobs added in January, with unemployment easing to 4.3%, providing a generally supportive macro backdrop .

At the same time, scrutiny over USDA data reliability is increasing due to staff reductions at NASS and FSA, potentially adding volatility to future market reactions .

Market Implications for Producers

For U.S. growers, the divergence between soybeans and corn underscores shifting demand dynamics:

• Ethanol recovery supports corn, but export competition persists.

• Soybeans benefit from technical strength, though Brazil's export surge looms large.

• Wheat markets remain highly sensitive to global weather disruptions.

As planting season approaches, volatility tied to exports, energy markets and global weather patterns could define early spring price direction across the grain complex.