The government shutdown is keeping USDA market updates offline - and with that blackout, producers are scrambling. Should they sell straight off the combine, or store grain and hope prices rise later? Analysts warn that the latter approach, waiting in silence, is risky. As Tyler Schau of AgMarket.Net advises, "don't just ‘hold and hope' - develop a plan now." Because with no fresh supply-demand or export data in sight, market direction depends more than ever on harvest reports, weather swings, and political will.

In corn markets, December futures slipped 0.25 cent overnight to $4.2175, after a 2.25-cent gain the previous day. The contract remains boxed between resistance at the 20-day and 100-day SMAs ($4.2275 and $4.2325) and support near $4.15. The national average cash price jumped about 2.75 cents to $3.7975 - its best showing in nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, traders look to an expected farmer aid announcement from the Trump administration to break the logjam, though the shutdown complicates the approval process. The proposed package could reach $15 billion, with priority likely favoring soybean producers. But any payout mechanism may require Congressional approval, which currently remains stalled.

Analysts anticipate the USDA could trim corn yield estimates from 186.7 bushels/acre to about 185 - still a record. Yet end-of-year corn stocks may reach 2.231 billion bushels, a seven-year high, and above September's USDA estimate of 2.11 billion.

Soybeans cooled from a three-day rally: November futures eased 5.25 cents to $10.2425 after peaking near $10.30. But the technical setup remains bullish, helped by gains above key SMAs and hopes for resumed Chinese demand. Still, extended absence by China could weaken support. Analysts expect U.S. yields to be revised slightly lower (53.2 bpa) and project stable carryover stocks near 300 million bushels. Meanwhile, South America's rainfall outlook is improving, a mixed omen for global balance.

Wheat futures got a modest bounce overnight. Soft red winter (SRW) for December gained 4 cents to $5.1125, and hard red winter (HRW) added 3.75 cents to $4.97. Strong U.S. export competitiveness and expanded domestic supplies lend some support, though upside is limited. Analysts now expect 2025-26 ending stocks to rise to 875 million bushels, up from 844 million forecast in September. Globally, wheat stocks may swell to 265.72 MMT, up 1.3% year-on-year.

In the wheat belt, dryness is creeping into the Plains. HRW areas from Texas through Kansas to the lower Midwest saw just light rainfall (~0.12 inch) this week. Warm, dry weather remains likely through Saturday, increasing topsoil stress - though some relief may arrive Sunday through Tuesday, driven by a tropical system remnant and low pressure trough. Confidence is low in how much rain those features will bring, but any moisture would be welcomed.

U.S. winter wheat planting is progressing slowly - about 50% complete, up from 34% a week ago but trailing the five-year average. In Kansas, the top producing state, planting is especially lagging at just 17%.

Weather also favors the Midwestern weekend rebound. After early dips into the 40s°F overnight, daytime highs may rebound into the 70s°F. The 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks lean toward above-normal temperatures and limited precipitation across the central U.S.

Outside the farm field, markets remain tentative. Stock index futures hovered after recent highs. The U.S. dollar index also held steady near a two-month low. In commodities, Nov WTI crude fell 24 cents to $62.31, and gold nudged down 0.4%, retreating from record highs.