Hormuz tensions threaten fertilizer trade and global agriculture supply chains
Rising military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt fertilizer shipments and energy flows, raising costs and risks for global agriculture.
LONDON - March 13, 2026. Military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to disrupt maritime traffic, raising alarms across global energy and agricultural markets. In a new rapid assessment released this week, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that escalating instability in the strategic shipping corridor could threaten fertilizer trade, global supply chains and food production costs worldwide.
The report, titled "Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development," highlights the importance of the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes. Nearly one quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers, making it one of the most critical chokepoints for international trade.
According to the UN agency's analysis, military escalation in West Asia has already started affecting shipping flows, triggering immediate reactions in global energy markets. Brent crude oil prices climbed above $90 per barrel following the latest tensions, illustrating how quickly geopolitical risks can ripple across commodity markets.
The consequences extend far beyond energy. Shipping costs are also rising, as tanker freight rates increase and war-risk insurance premiums surge for vessels operating in the region. Higher marine fuel prices are further pushing up transport costs across global logistics networks.
For agriculture, the risks are particularly significant. Around one-third of global seaborne fertilizer shipments - approximately 16 million tonnes - move through the Strait of Hormuz, according to UN Trade and Development. Any prolonged disruption could therefore tighten fertilizer availability and raise input costs for farmers, especially in import-dependent regions.
Countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America, where fertilizer imports play a crucial role in crop productivity, could feel the effects most strongly. Rising fertilizer prices often translate into higher food production costs and increased pressure on global food prices, amplifying economic stress in developing markets.
The report also warns that developing economies are especially vulnerable to these shocks. Many already face high debt levels and rising borrowing costs, leaving governments with limited fiscal space to absorb sudden spikes in energy or agricultural input prices.
UN Trade and Development noted that previous global crises have demonstrated how quickly disruptions can spread across interconnected markets. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine both showed how shocks in energy, logistics and agricultural inputs can cascade across global supply chains, affecting food systems and trade flows worldwide.
Analysts say the situation underscores the deep interconnection between geopolitics, energy markets and global agriculture. Fertilizers such as urea, ammonia and other nitrogen-based products depend heavily on natural gas, meaning energy disruptions can quickly translate into higher costs for agricultural production.
For now, UN Trade and Development is urging governments and industry stakeholders to closely monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that prolonged instability could reshape energy markets, fertilizer availability and the stability of global trade - with direct implications for food security and agricultural production worldwide.
