U.S. President Donald Trump has urged China to quadruple its purchases of American soybeans, a demand that pushed Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures up 2.38% to $10.11 per bushel on Monday but drew skepticism from market analysts.

In a Truth Social post late Sunday, Trump claimed China was concerned about soybean shortages and expressed hope for an immediate surge in orders. "Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI," he wrote, signaling optimism about a potential trade move ahead of a critical August 12 tariff truce deadline.

Last year, China-the world's largest soybean importer-purchased about 105 million metric tons of the oilseed, with roughly 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S. and the majority from Brazil. Meeting Trump's target would require Beijing to buy most of its supply from American farmers, a scenario analysts say is highly unlikely.

"China would never buy four times its usual volume from the U.S.," said Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting in Beijing. "The supply chain, contracts, and pricing make it impractical."

The timing of Trump's statement is strategic. The tariff truce, part of ongoing trade negotiations, was initially tied to extending market access for U.S. farm products, echoing provisions of the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump's first term. However, China fell short of its original agricultural purchase commitments, and this year has yet to secure any fourth-quarter U.S. soybean contracts-a red flag for exporters as harvest season nears.

Market Repercussions
Following Trump's remarks, China's soymeal futures fell 0.65% to 3,068 yuan per metric ton, with traders factoring in the possibility of increased U.S. supply. But Beijing has also signaled a willingness to diversify imports, recently booking three Argentine soymeal cargoes to hedge against U.S. supply risks.

Industry Concerns
The U.S. soybean sector, heavily reliant on Chinese demand, has struggled to find alternative buyers capable of matching China's scale. Brazil supplied 74.65 million tons to China in 2024, dwarfing U.S. volumes. Without Chinese orders, U.S. farmers could face lower export revenues, increased storage costs, and downward pressure on farmgate prices-even if domestic crush demand remains stable.

As Washington and Beijing navigate the next phase of negotiations, the agriculture industry is bracing for either a short-term price rally fueled by political optimism or a longer-term market realignment if China opts to source more from South America.