Brazilian beef exporters may face a $1 billion hit to U.S. sales if former President Donald Trump moves forward with a proposed 50% tariff on beef imports from Brazil. The announcement is expected Friday, according to Abiec, the industry group representing major exporters like JBS NV.

The U.S. has become a key destination for Brazil's beef, particularly lean beef used in ground meat blends. In the first half of 2025, Brazil shipped approximately 180,000 metric tons of beef to the U.S., more than double the volume from the same period in 2024.

Brazil was projected to more than double total beef exports to the U.S. this year to around 400,000 metric tons, said Abiec president Roberto Perosa. The tariff threat could derail that trajectory, with no other global market currently positioned to absorb the displaced volumes.

U.S. Beef Supply Under Pressure

The backdrop to this trade risk is a severe cattle shortage in the U.S., which has forced American processors to turn to Brazil for lean beef. U.S. grocery store beef prices have surged as domestic supplies tighten. Compounding the situation, Mexican cattle imports were restricted earlier this year due to concerns over a parasitic disease.

Currently, most Brazilian beef exports to the U.S. are already subject to tariffs, which total around 76% when combined with new proposals, said Perosa.

Policy and Market Uncertainty

While the proposed tariffs are politically driven, their economic impact could be immediate. U.S. meat processors and retailers are closely watching the decision, given their dependency on Brazilian beef to stabilize pricing and meet demand.

If the tariffs proceed, Brazil will need to quickly evaluate diversion strategies, but few buyers offer the same scale or price levels as the U.S. The move could also trigger ripple effects in global beef pricing and trade flows.