The U.S. livestock industry is becoming increasingly vulnerable to supply chain shocks, as new research reveals rising dependence on Chinese imports of key feed supplements. A report released Thursday by the Institute for Feed Education and Research shows that the U.S. now relies on China for over 80% of imports of five essential vitamins and amino acids, including Lysine, a critical supplement for livestock growth.

"For years, we've been cautioning that China's dominance in this market creates significant risks," said Constance Cullman, president and CEO of the American Feed Industry Association. "But what we learned with this research is that dominance is growing."

From 2015 to 2019, approximately 68% of U.S. vitamin imports originated in China. Between 2020 and 2024, that figure climbed to more than 76%. The growth has been driven by aggressive Chinese policy, including direct subsidies and pricing strategies aimed at capturing market share through oversupply.

According to Spencer Parkinson, CEO of Decision Innovation Solutions, Chinese vitamin prices were 18% below those of competitors from 2015 to 2019. By 2024, that margin had widened to 34%, pushing competitors out and deepening U.S. dependence.

While short-term benefits may include lower costs for farmers, David Miller, chief economist at Decision Innovation Solutions, warned of long-term dangers. "In the long run, this undermines market competitiveness," he said. "It places our agricultural sector at the mercy of a geopolitical rival."

The report modeled various disruption scenarios. A 20% reduction in Methionine, the most used amino acid in broiler production, could cause nearly a 1% rise in mortality, a 3% drop in meat yield, and delay processing by four days. An 80% reduction could raise mortality close to 10%, reduce yield by 14%, and extend the grow-out period by 15 days. For laying hens, egg production could drop by over 10%.

Vitamin B shortages would also be dire. An 80% cut in market hog supplementation could delay harvest by 70 days and reduce carcass weights by 100 pounds per animal.

Cullman emphasized that such risks are not hypothetical. "COVID-19 exposed the fragility of concentrated supply chains," she said. "We cannot wait for another crisis to act."

Efforts to diversify sourcing are underway in Washington. The bipartisan Securing American Ag Act, introduced in both chambers of Congress, would mandate the USDA to analyze dependence on China across a wide range of ag inputs-including feed, fertilizer, pesticides, and seeds.

Cullman said AFIA has been in contact with officials at the White House National Security Council, the U.S. Trade Representative, and the Commerce Department to raise the urgency of the issue. "Once the government is back up and running, we'll be able to renew those conversations," she said.