China has made no new purchases of U.S. soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, marking a sharp downturn in agricultural trade between the world's two largest economies. With retaliatory tariffs of 20% and additional taxes driving the full duty rate to over 34%, American soybeans are now priced out of China's market. In their place, Brazilian soybeans dominate, covering an estimated 95% of October demand.

The implications for U.S. agriculture are severe. China typically buys nearly half of all U.S. soybean exports, and the current buying freeze-combined with expanded Chinese stockpiles-suggests that American farmers may not see renewed demand until early 2026, if at all.

Chinese importers, anticipating trade disruptions, stockpiled over 50 million tons of soybeans between May and August. With commercial reserves reportedly above 6.8 million tons, Chinese crushers can wait out U.S. sellers without risking supply shortages.

The broader market impact is already being felt. U.S. soybean prices are falling, with futures for November 2025 down to $9.85 per bushel, well below breakeven levels in many regions. In states like North Dakota, where exports to China form a crucial part of local revenue, the drop in demand has triggered urgent concerns among farmers and grain elevators.

China's soybean imports from Brazil have been elevated in recent months

Beyond soybeans, other commodities are also suffering. Corn, wheat, sorghum, beef, pork, and cotton exports to China are lagging. Sorghum producers, particularly, are facing a sharp downturn, as China historically accounts for around 90% of U.S. sorghum exports.

Without new orders on the books, stakeholders across the supply chain-from growers to shippers-are facing rising transportation costs, storage bottlenecks, and the prospect of significant financial losses. Infrastructure built to support Pacific export routes is underutilized, and freight companies are adjusting rates accordingly.

BNSF Railway and Union Pacific have cut rates for Gulf Coast routes more than those serving the Pacific Northwest, signaling a regional shift driven by collapsing Asian demand. Elevators in the Midwest and Plains states, which specialize in crops like sorghum and soybeans, may struggle to remain profitable.

Meanwhile, short-term storage solutions like bean bags-largely produced in China-are themselves affected by new U.S. tariffs. Longer-term alternatives often rely on steel and aluminum, which have also been hit by import duties, compounding the challenges for producers.

Industry leaders say the only path forward may be a political one. The Phase One trade deal in 2020 included specific ag purchase targets, offering a temporary reprieve for exporters. But the current geopolitical environment-marked by renewed trade hostilities and tech-sector tensions-makes such an agreement unlikely in the near term.

Analysts point out that China has reduced its reliance on U.S. agriculture since 2020 by boosting domestic production and diversifying import sources. This has allowed Beijing to wield food imports as strategic leverage in broader negotiations, including disputes with both the U.S. and the European Union.

Some believe economic conditions might eventually force China's return to U.S. markets. U.S. cotton prices, for example, have fallen steeply, potentially making them attractive again to Chinese buyers. Similarly, as Brazilian soybean prices rise-fueled by strong demand-China may seek cheaper alternatives. If crushing margins in China turn negative, as some economists forecast, importers may be pushed back toward U.S. soybeans despite the political standoff.

But that inflection point could still be months away. Until then, American farmers face a historic export gap, with ripple effects across commodity pricing, storage, infrastructure, and overall farm income. As one industry leader put it: "The pressure continues to mount. It's high stakes."