Urea supply crisis deepens as Middle East conflict halts fertilizer flows globally
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are choking urea exports, tightening global fertilizer supply and raising concerns over crop costs and food inflation.
More than 55% to 60% of Middle East urea production has been disrupted since late February 2026, when the Iran conflict escalated and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, according to data analyzed by our newsroom. The disruption matters because the region supplies nearly 45% of global urea trade, making it a critical source for farmers worldwide facing tighter fertilizer availability ahead of key planting cycles.
The crisis is not only about lost production, but also about logistical paralysis. Large volumes of urea are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, with vessels unable to exit the strait while new ships are not entering. As a result, global supply chains are tightening rapidly, increasing the risk of higher input costs and food inflation.
At the same time, attacks on energy and industrial infrastructure in countries such as Qatar and Bahrain have further constrained production capacity. This dual shock-reduced output and blocked exports-is amplifying the pressure on global fertilizer markets.
Logistics bottlenecks and storage limits raise risk of shutdowns
The scale of disruption is reflected in shipping data: since the conflict began, only 11 fertilizer vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with just four carrying urea, while 44 ships remain stuck in the Gulf, nearly half loaded with urea.
- Exports have slowed to minimal levels, disrupting global trade flows
- Storage capacity is reaching critical limits across Gulf producers
- Supply shortages are spreading to key import regions like India, Europe and Brazil
Producers have temporarily used immobilized vessels as floating storage, but this solution is reaching its limits. As tanks and ships fill up, the risk increases that plants will be forced to shut down operations entirely.
According to industry analysis, nitrogen fertilizer plants cannot restart quickly, meaning any shutdowns could prolong supply disruptions well beyond the resolution of the conflict.
The impact extends across the global food system. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, essential for crops like corn, wheat and rice, and difficult to replace due to its high nutrient concentration. With fertilizer availability tightening, farmers may reduce application rates, potentially affecting yields and increasing volatility in agricultural markets.
Beyond immediate supply concerns, the situation underscores a deeper vulnerability: the global food system's dependence on strategic maritime routes and concentrated production hubs. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, backlogs in shipments are expected to persist, prolonging market instability and reinforcing upward pressure on input costs worldwide.
