U.S. agricultural trade is entering 2026 with significant uncertainty, as export values are projected to fall to their lowest level in five years and import patterns shift following a record 2025. New forecasts highlight the challenges facing farmers, exporters, and supply chain stakeholders navigating evolving global demand and tariff-driven market changes.

In the latest 2026 Economic Outlook, economists from Texas A&M University, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, Oklahoma State University, and Oklahoma State University Extension paint a nuanced picture of U.S. agricultural trade. While volumes may rise modestly, value declines and geopolitical trade dynamics are creating headwinds for key commodities and trading relationships.

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Export Forecast: Lowest Value in Five Years

According to the USDA's latest projections, U.S. agricultural exports are expected to reach $169 billion in 2026, down from an estimated $173 billion in 2025 and $174.1 billion in 2024. Although export volumes are forecast to increase slightly (0.5%), the value of those exports is expected to fall by approximately 2.4% compared with 2025.

Soybeans and sorghum are key contributors to this downward trend. Decreases in exports of these crops to China - driven by sustained higher U.S. tariffs - have significantly reduced export value. China, traditionally a dominant buyer, has pivoted to increased imports from Brazil and Argentina, reshaping global supply flows and reducing U.S. market share.

While the U.S. has seen growth in ag exports to markets like the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam, those gains have been insufficient to fully offset declines to China. This shift underscores the importance of diversified export strategies and strengthening trade ties outside traditional markets.

Imports: Peak in 2025, Decline Expected in 2026

On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are projected to hit a record $220 billion in 2025 before settling down to $210.5 billion in 2026. The anticipated decrease is driven largely by lower imports of horticultural products and vegetable oils, though higher prices for cocoa and coffee are expected to elevate import values even as volumes fall.

These evolving trade patterns reflect complex interactions between U.S. tariff policy, global commodity prices, and consumer demand. Products such as citrus, bananas, and processed food inputs remain integral to U.S. import profiles, with price dynamics influencing trade flows and retail costs.

Tariff Policy's Role in Trade Dynamics

A central factor shaping the 2026 outlook is the comprehensive tariff strategy implemented under the Trump administration, which continues to exert significant influence on agricultural trade relationships.

Since the widely referenced "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, tariff leverage has been used to push for broader trade reforms and adjust longstanding trade imbalances. However, this approach has introduced heightened uncertainty for exporters and buyers alike, with ripple effects throughout the supply chain.

In response to escalating input costs and consumer prices, recent policy adjustments have introduced tariff exceptions on select agricultural products, including:

• Beef

• Tea and coffee

• Fruit juices

• Cocoa

• Spices

• Bananas, oranges, tomatoes

• Certain fertilizers

These tariff exemptions aim to elevate competition, reduce costs for U.S. consumers, and alleviate some pressure on import-dependent sectors. Yet, the full impact on trade balances and domestic prices remains to be seen.

What This Means for U.S. Ag Stakeholders

For farmers, agribusinesses, and trade professionals, the 2026 outlook underscores a critical need for strategic adaptation:

• Diversifying export markets beyond traditional partners like China to mitigate tariff risk.

• Investing in value-added products and supply chain resilience to capture growth in emerging markets.

• Monitoring currency fluctuations and global commodity price trends, which influence trade competitiveness.

• Engaging with policymakers and co-ops to advocate for balanced trade policies that support domestic production and fair market access.

Despite challenges, incremental export volume growth suggests underlying demand remains robust, even as value pressures and tariff complexities persist.