The United States, long the world's agricultural juggernaut, is rapidly losing ground in the global race for crop exports. A joint peer-reviewed study from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University projects the U.S. will end 2025 with a $49 billion agricultural trade deficit, a stunning reversal for a country that once led the world in corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton shipments.

Authors William Ridley and Stephen Devadoss trace the downturn to a mix of lingering trade disputes, surging foreign competition, and underinvestment in productivity and infrastructure. According to their analysis, the 2018-2020 U.S.-China trade war erased more than $14 billion in farm exports, primarily soybeans, and helped push buyers permanently toward alternate suppliers like Brazil, Australia, and Canada.

Despite a temporary bump from the Phase One deal, the broader shift in purchasing patterns stuck. Chinese buyers diversified their sourcing, and American farmers haven't recovered that volume. Renewed tariff escalations in 2025 could further erode what's left of that crucial market.

Brazil and Others Surge as U.S. Stalls

While the U.S. has largely plateaued in real export growth since the mid-2000s, Brazil has transformed its agricultural capacity. The South American powerhouse now leads the world in soybean exports and is aggressively gaining market share in corn and cotton. With expanded acreage, yield improvements, and upgraded logistics-from inland roads to deepwater ports-Brazil is becoming a model of ag-export efficiency.

Meanwhile, countries like Canada and Australia have bolstered their positions in wheat, especially in premium Asian markets. Even Ukraine, despite war disruptions, continues to play a pivotal role in global grain exports.

The U.S., in contrast, has seen its export reliability challenged by infrastructure bottlenecks, such as barge delays on the Mississippi River and rail congestion. Climate-related stressors-drought, heatwaves, flooding-have only amplified those weaknesses, raising delivered costs and reducing global competitiveness.

Policy Paralysis and Investment Gaps

Beyond weather and logistics, policy gaps are compounding the problem. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it has not signed any major new trade deals, while rivals moved forward. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) lowered trade barriers across the Pacific Rim, shifting market dynamics in Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia.

Input cost inflation, especially duties on fertilizers, is another drag. The report warns that without predictable trade rules and stronger global engagement, U.S. agriculture remains exposed to retaliatory tariffs and regulatory uncertainty.

At the same time, China is making bold moves to secure agricultural self-sufficiency. Through massive public R&D investment and rapid approval of new genetically modified seed technologies, China is moving to reduce reliance on imports-a trend that puts long-term pressure on U.S. export volumes.

A Path Forward: Trade, Technology, and Infrastructure

Despite the grim data, the study outlines clear policy and strategic levers the U.S. could pull to stabilize its export position.

First, reducing tariff volatility and re-establishing stable trade agreements would help remove the fog of uncertainty clouding international sales. Whether through new bilateral deals or the elimination of non-tariff barriers, regaining access to high-demand markets like China, Mexico, and Japan is vital.

Second, agricultural R&D needs a major boost. From developing climate-resilient crop genetics to scaling precision agriculture tools, public research investments historically deliver high returns in yield and input efficiency.

Third, America must modernize its export corridors. River locks, rail terminals, and port capacity are all overdue for upgrades. These infrastructure investments are essential not only for keeping delivered costs competitive, but for withstanding climate disruptions.

Finally, the report emphasizes that while the growing U.S. appetite for imported food reflects prosperity, it also shifts pressure onto the row-crop sector to offset that demand with stronger exports.

"Producers may look to other markets, but there's only one China," Ridley said in the report. "Even if you pulled these tariffs back right now, sales would not resume."

That sobering line captures the urgency of the report's message: the United States hasn't lost the race in global agriculture-but it is no longer running unchallenged. In a more competitive, fragmented, and climate-stressed world, reclaiming America's edge in global row-crop trade will require stronger science, smarter trade, and faster routes to market.

Without those reforms, a once-reliable surplus could become a long-term liability-dimming the U.S. role in shaping the future of global food supply.