Beef Crisis Deepens as Border Closure Shifts Billions from Texas to Mexico
A cattle import ban meant to stop screwworm is reshaping North America's beef industry, hurting Texas jobs while boosting Mexican exports.
The U.S. government's decision to keep the border closed to Mexican cattle imports, reaffirmed this week after the first U.S. screwworm case in six decades was detected in Texas, is triggering major economic consequences across the beef industry. The measure, backed by the USDA and the Trump administration, aims to contain the flesh-eating parasite, but it is also accelerating the decline of American feedlots while helping Mexican producers capture more value from cattle production and exports.
The impact is particularly visible in Texas, the nation's largest cattle-producing state, where feedyards, ranchers and meat processors are struggling with historically tight supplies, soaring cattle prices and shrinking profit margins.
At Lubbock Feeders, a 70-year-old Texas feedlot that once depended heavily on cattle imported from Mexico, rows of pens now sit largely empty. The operation, capable of holding 40,000 head of cattle, has seen inventories plunge to roughly 4,000 animals, putting its future at risk.
For decades, more than one million Mexican cattle annually crossed into the United States, representing about 4% to 5% of U.S. beef production supplies. Those animals supported an extensive economic network that included feedlots, truckers, grain producers, veterinarians and meatpacking workers.
Now, much of that business remains south of the border.
"We're giving this to them on a silver platter," said feedlot manager Kyle Williams, referring to the growing amount of cattle feeding and processing taking place in Mexico rather than in the United States.
The border closure comes at a particularly difficult time for American cattle producers.
The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years, driven by years of drought, rising production costs and producer uncertainty. The reduced supply has pushed beef prices to record highs in 2026, creating affordability concerns for consumers ahead of the midterm election cycle.
While President Donald Trump has encouraged the industry to lower prices and authorized additional low-tariff beef imports from Argentina, producers argue that rebuilding the domestic herd remains a slow process that can take up to two years.
Many ranchers are reluctant to expand because of persistent drought conditions and uncertainty about future profitability.
In Texas, rancher Eddie Womack says another year of severe drought could force him to reduce his herd dramatically or leave the industry altogether.
While American producers struggle, Mexico's beef industry is experiencing rapid expansion.
Producers who once exported live cattle to U.S. feedlots are increasingly raising, feeding and processing those animals domestically before exporting beef products north.
The strategy is generating significant economic benefits.
Mexican beef exports to the United States increased 23% during the first four months of 2026, according to industry data. Ranchers report higher profits, while regional governments are investing in slaughterhouses, packing facilities and export infrastructure.
In Coahuila, one of Mexico's leading cattle-producing states, officials are expanding federally certified processing capacity to support growing export demand.
Local producers say the border closure has effectively accelerated a transformation that allows more value-added activities-and profits-to remain in Mexico.
"In the end, we are going to get to the United States just the same, but now with meat," said rancher Enrique García, who reports his income has increased between 8% and 10% since expanding his beef operation.
The consequences extend beyond ranches and feedlots.
Major meat processors are facing mounting pressure as cattle shortages reduce plant efficiency and raise operating costs.
Tyson Foods has already reduced operations at a Texas beef facility and permanently closed a large Nebraska plant, eliminating thousands of jobs. Industry rivals have also faced labor tensions as companies attempt to manage rising costs and shrinking supplies.
Executives across the meat sector argue that reopening cattle imports from Mexico would provide the fastest path to increasing available supplies over the next 12 to 18 months.
The USDA maintains that keeping the border closed remains necessary to slow the spread of screwworm, a parasite capable of infesting cattle and other warm-blooded animals through open wounds.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has defended the restrictions, arguing that the policy successfully delayed the pest's arrival in the United States and remains an essential biosecurity measure.
Yet for many industry leaders, the debate is increasingly about balancing animal health protections with the economic survival of America's beef supply chain.
