Soybeans are expected to be a central topic when U.S. and Chinese trade officials meet this weekend in Paris, as markets watch for signs that Beijing may resume large-scale purchases of American soybeans ahead of a planned summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later this month.

The meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is designed to lay the groundwork for a high-level summit scheduled in Beijing, where agricultural trade - particularly soybean exports - could play a key role in broader negotiations between the two economic powers.

Soybeans have long been the most important agricultural commodity in the trade relationship between the United States and China. The crop highlights a deep economic interdependence: Chinese livestock producers rely heavily on imported soybeans for animal feed, while U.S. soybean farmers depend on exports to maintain profitability and support rural economies.

Market analysts say the upcoming diplomatic meetings could encourage additional Chinese buying. "The market consensus is that the meeting between the top leaders of the two nations could provide incentives for more purchasing," said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures.

Chinese soybean purchases from the United States fell sharply during the 2025 trade dispute, at one point dropping to zero. However, Beijing later fulfilled part of a trade agreement reached last October by purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Since completing those initial purchases, buying activity has slowed, leaving uncertainty about whether China will return to the market before the next U.S. harvest.

Under the trade truce reached last year, China signaled it could import approximately 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually between 2026 and 2028. Some traders believe Chinese buyers may delay additional purchases until September, when the new U.S. crop becomes available and prices typically decline.

President Donald Trump recently suggested China could significantly increase soybean purchases in the current marketing year. In a February post on Truth Social, Trump said China was considering raising its soybean imports to 20 million tons this season, although Chinese officials have not publicly confirmed the figure.

The uncertainty surrounding future purchases has kept soybean markets closely focused on developments in the upcoming trade talks. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has created broader international uncertainty, potentially affecting diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing.

At the same time, a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential tariff authority could weaken the United States' leverage in trade negotiations. Analysts say those factors may reduce expectations for a major breakthrough during the upcoming meetings.

"The market appears to be dialing back expectations for a major trade agreement," said Susan Stroud, analyst at No Bull Ag. "The Middle East conflict has injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook."

Commercial market conditions also influence Chinese purchasing decisions. Brazil, now the world's largest soybean exporter, is currently harvesting a large crop in the Southern Hemisphere, providing abundant supplies for Chinese buyers.

Private Chinese soybean crushers often favor Brazilian soybeans, which are currently cheaper and not subject to the 13% tariff still applied to U.S. soybeans. Since October, many of the purchases of U.S. soybeans have been made by state-backed Chinese importers, indicating political motivations rather than purely commercial decisions.

Agricultural markets are also watching for so-called "goodwill purchases," a strategy sometimes used during trade negotiations to signal diplomatic progress. So far, however, Chinese buyers have not made additional soybean purchases during the first weeks of March, which has tempered expectations in commodity markets.

Still, analysts say political considerations could ultimately outweigh short-term economics if both governments seek to create a positive backdrop for the upcoming summit. If that occurs, increased soybean purchases could once again become a key diplomatic gesture between the world's two largest economies - and a critical development for U.S. farmers heading into the 2026 growing season.