A new survey suggests that US-China trade relations could enter a "tactical truce" in 2026, easing fears of rapid economic decoupling while companies prepare for ongoing geopolitical tensions that could reshape global supply chains and commodity markets.

A report released March 10 by the American Chamber of Commerce in South China found growing confidence among foreign firms operating in the region. The survey indicates businesses expect relations between Washington and Beijing to stabilize in the near term, a shift that could influence global trade flows and agricultural export markets. More than 400 companies participated in the survey conducted in late 2025, representing a mix of American, Chinese, European and international firms operating across southern China's manufacturing and export sectors.

The findings show 39% of respondents now hold a positive outlook on US-China relations, an increase of 14 percentage points compared with 2024. The improvement reflects expectations that both governments will maintain economic engagement despite persistent strategic rivalry. According to AmCham South China President Harley Seyedin, bilateral trade may move into what he described as a "tactical truce." In practical terms, that means economic decoupling between the world's two largest economies may slow rather than accelerate, with trade increasingly concentrated in non-sensitive sectors such as consumer goods, manufacturing inputs, and commodities.

For global agricultural markets, this type of stabilization could be significant. China remains one of the largest buyers of US farm products, including soybeans, corn, pork and specialty crops, and any easing in trade friction can affect commodity prices and export demand. The report comes ahead of an expected visit to China by US President Donald Trump later in March, which would mark the first trip by a US president to the country in nearly a decade if confirmed.

Diplomatic engagement at that level could help maintain commercial channels that remain critical for global supply chains. However, businesses surveyed still anticipate periodic trade tensions and policy shifts, particularly around technology, national security and industrial policy. Even with improved sentiment, executives expect structural changes to continue. Seyedin warned that both governments are emphasizing greater economic self-reliance, which could reduce bilateral trade flows compared with historical levels. Estimates suggest US-China trade volumes could fall to less than half of pre-2017 levels, reflecting tariffs, supply chain diversification and strategic competition. 

Another key trend highlighted in the survey is China's pivot toward emerging markets and developing economies as part of its long-term trade strategy. In 2025, China's trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached $3.39 trillion, representing 51.9% of the country's total trade value. Analysts say this shift provides Beijing with a structural buffer against Western decoupling pressures.

China's manufacturing sector is also evolving. Instead of serving primarily as the final assembly hub for Western goods, the country is increasingly acting as a supplier of intermediate industrial components to Southeast Asia and other emerging markets. This transformation could reshape supply chains for sectors ranging from electronics to agricultural inputs such as machinery, fertilizers and processing equipment.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, most companies surveyed reported profitable operations in China in 2025.

The survey found:

• 82% of companies reported profits, slightly down from the previous year

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• 87% of American firms were profitable, compared with 76% of companies from other regions

• 63% of businesses reinvested in China in 2025

However, most reinvestment remained modest. About three-quarters of firms invested less than $10 million into their Chinese operations. Looking ahead to 2026, 67% of US companies plan to reinvest, down slightly from the previous year, while firms from other countries showed a modest increase in investment plans.

For US agriculture professionals, the prospect of a temporary stabilization in US-China trade relations could carry significant implications for export demand and commodity prices.

China remains a critical buyer of US agricultural products, particularly soybeans, feed grains and livestock products. Even a partial easing of trade tensions could support more predictable demand and reduce volatility across grain and oilseed markets. However, the broader geopolitical shift toward diversified supply chains and regional trade blocs means US producers may still face long-term competition from alternative suppliers in South America and other emerging agricultural exporters. 

For now, business leaders describe the current outlook as a fragile balance between cooperation and competition, where economic pragmatism may slow-but not fully stop-the strategic decoupling between Washington and Beijing.