According to the USDA Economic Research Service, U.S. corn export sales are accelerating at a historic pace, with the 2024/2025 marketing year forecast raised to a record-high 2.75 billion bushels. That's a 100-million-bushel increase month-over-month and a stunning 22% jump over 2023/2024 levels.

With 300 days of the marketing year complete, total commitments - including both outstanding sales and shipments - reached 2.731 billion bushels as of July 3, nearly mirroring the previous all-time high set during 2020/2021.

Global Demand Fuels Growth - But Not from China

What's driving this boom? Growth from key importers: South Korea (+2.6 MMT), Mexico (+2.6 MMT), Japan (+2.1 MMT), and Spain (+1.8 MMT). Smaller gains from buyers across South America and the EU are also contributing.

China, however, is virtually absent. In 2020/21, it bought nearly 31% of U.S. corn exports. So far in 2024/25, that figure has plummeted to less than 1% - just 33,000 metric tons.

The USDA recently slashed its estimate for China's 2024/25 corn imports from 7 million to 5 million metric tons, marking a 79% year-over-year decline.

Canada's demand is also down 53% year-over-year, adding further complexity to North American trade dynamics.

Brazil's Delays Offer Temporary Relief

Reuters reports that Brazil, the world's No. 2 corn exporter, has had a sluggish start to its 2025 season, creating a window of opportunity for U.S. corn. Brazilian exports usually peak in July but are likely to fall short this year.

Even so, USDA's 2025/2026 export target is ambitious, and U.S. corn will face stiff competition once Brazil ramps up shipments - especially if port space favors soybeans. The early numbers, however, are encouraging: U.S. 2025/26 corn sales stood at 5.42 million tons as of July 3, the highest in nine years excluding China.

Currency Volatility and Tariff Concerns Could Alter the Landscape

A wildcard in the months ahead is the fluctuating Brazilian real, which weakened significantly following U.S. tariff threats but then regained strength. A weaker real could boost Brazilian grain sales, undercutting U.S. competitiveness.

There's concern among American producers that prolonged trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs could harm U.S. grain profitability, especially with input costs and interest rates already pressuring farm margins.

What's Next for U.S. Corn?

While 2024/25 is poised for a banner export year, the future remains murky. Farmers and traders will be watching Brazilian shipping activity, Chinese demand signals, and U.S. trade policies closely as the 2025/26 marketing year approaches on September 1.