Economic Pressure Deepens as U.S. Farmer Confidence Hits Lowest Level Since 2024
U.S. farmer sentiment continued to weaken in June as soaring input costs and weak commodity prices eroded confidence across the agricultural sector, according to Purdue University's latest Ag Economy Barometer.
U.S. farmer confidence declined again in June, reaching its lowest level since December 2024, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer released Tuesday. The survey, conducted between June 15 and June 19 among 400 producers nationwide, found that high production costs remain the biggest challenge facing American agriculture, while weak crop and livestock prices continue to weigh on farm profitability. The report matters because producer confidence is widely viewed as a leading indicator of future agricultural investment, borrowing decisions and production planning across the U.S. farm economy.
The overall Index of Current Conditions fell five points to 113, while the Index of Future Expectations declined seven points to 118, extending a downward trend that began after March, when optimism briefly improved during spring planting and following the distribution of nearly $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments. Even with additional federal economic assistance proposed after the survey period, confidence continued to deteriorate, highlighting that government support alone has not been enough to offset persistent economic pressures facing producers throughout the country.
Production Costs Remain Farmers' Biggest Financial Concern
The survey shows that 47% of farmers identified rising input costs as their primary concern, nearly double the percentage of those pointing to low commodity prices, which ranked second at 23%. Another 42% of respondents said expensive production inputs are the single biggest factor preventing their farms from improving financially this year. Weather risk, policy uncertainty, labor shortages, equipment costs and debt pressures followed as additional challenges, reflecting the broad range of economic headwinds confronting producers across multiple agricultural sectors.
Fertilizer expenses continue to play a major role in producers' concerns. Although prices for several major fertilizer products have started to ease compared to recent months, they remain significantly above year-ago levels. Anhydrous ammonia prices, for example, were nearly 40% higher than the same period last year, keeping production expenses elevated despite government efforts to stimulate domestic fertilizer manufacturing. The Trump administration recently announced $500 million aimed at expanding U.S. fertilizer production, but many farmers have yet to experience meaningful relief in their operating budgets.
Crop Producers Turn More Pessimistic Than Livestock Operations
Financial expectations remain subdued across much of rural America. Only 12% of surveyed farmers said their operations are currently in better financial condition than one year ago, while just 22% expect improvement over the next twelve months. Looking further ahead, only 31% believe agriculture will experience good economic conditions during the next five years, a sharp decline from last year. The divide between production sectors is particularly notable, with crop producers expressing far greater pessimism than livestock producers, reflecting the continued pressure on grain and oilseed markets.
Despite growing uncertainty surrounding agricultural markets, American farmers continue to express overwhelming support for international trade. Nearly 85% agreed that free trade benefits both agriculture and the broader U.S. economy, while 43% expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years. However, confidence in export growth has moderated compared to previous surveys. The findings suggest producers still see foreign markets as critical for long-term profitability, even as global competition and policy uncertainty remain ongoing concerns.
Many Farmers Still See Limited Value in Artificial Intelligence
The survey also examined producer attitudes toward emerging digital technologies. More than half of respondents-52%-said artificial intelligence and data-driven tools currently offer no meaningful benefit to their farming operations. Only 23% believe AI could significantly increase production, while 14% view the technology as a potential solution to labor shortages and another 11% believe it could reduce operational risk. These results indicate that adoption of advanced digital agriculture remains slower than many industry observers anticipated.
Farmer attitudes toward the broader national economy also weakened compared to last year. Slightly more than half of respondents, 53%, believe the United States is generally moving in the right direction, but that figure remains well below the optimism recorded throughout 2025. Combined with declining sentiment, persistent inflation in production costs and uncertain commodity markets, the latest Purdue Ag Economy Barometer paints a picture of an agricultural sector that continues searching for stronger profitability despite policy support, resilient export expectations and ongoing investments in the nation's farming economy.
