U.S. Farmer Sentiment Falls Sharply in January as Economic Anxiety Spikes
The Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer plunged in January as debt, exports, and machinery fears weigh on producer confidence nationwide.
On January 16, 2026, Purdue University and CME Group released their monthly Ag Economy Barometer, revealing a dramatic drop in U.S. farmer sentiment to start the new year. The index fell to 113 points, down sharply from 136 in December, reflecting growing unease across America's agricultural sector.
This marked one of the steepest month-over-month declines in recent years, driven by persistent concerns over export instability, farm debt, and machinery investment costs.
The Future Expectations Index, a key gauge of forward-looking optimism, plummeted by 25 points. Half of all surveyed producers said their operation is worse off than a year ago, while 30% expect things to decline further in the next 12 months.
Farmers were especially troubled by exports, with 16% of respondents forecasting a five-year drop in agricultural exports-a huge leap from just 5% in December.
Among corn and soybean producers, 21% expect soybean exports to shrink, with 80% citing rising Brazilian competition as a direct threat. Brazil's growing dominance in global markets has added significant pressure to U.S. commodity pricing and trade leverage.
One of the most telling signs of market pessimism was the collapse in the Farm Capital Investment Index, which dropped to 47-its lowest point since October 2024.
Only 4% of producers said they plan to increase machinery purchases this year. The rest cited high costs, tightening margins, and uncertainty in markets as reasons for freezing or cutting back on capital spending.
"The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the ‘right direction' dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026."
Meanwhile, those saying the country is on the "wrong track" rose from 25% to 38%, a 52% jump in just one month, reflecting broader concerns beyond the farm gate.
Debt signals are flashing red. Among those producers expecting to take on larger operating loans this year, 31% cited unpaid debt from prior years as the main driver-a massive rise from just 5% in 2023. That's a warning sign of stress on cash flow and repayment capacity, particularly as input costs remain high and commodity prices stay volatile.
January 2026 Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer
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Overall Index: 113 ( 23 pts)
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Future Expectations Index: Down 25 pts
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Farm Capital Investment Index: 47 (lowest since Oct. 2024)
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Machinery Purchase Intentions: Only 4% plan to increase
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Export Concerns: 16% see long-term decline; 80% worried about Brazil
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Debt Carryover: 31% taking larger loans due to past unpaid debt
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National Direction Sentiment: 62% say U.S. on "right track" (), 38% say "wrong track" ()
The findings from the January 12-16 survey of 400 producers paint a cautious picture for the months ahead. Despite a mild winter in much of the Midwest and some input cost relief, the prevailing outlook remains clouded by global market forces, political uncertainty, and rising operating costs.
As policymakers, lenders, and cooperatives gear up for spring planting season, these numbers serve as a stark reminder: economic confidence in farm country is fragile-and falling fast.
