Row crop farmers across the U.S. are facing one of the most financially stressful seasons in recent history. With input costs rising, interest rates at multi-decade highs, and commodity prices failing to keep up, producers are operating in an environment with little room for error.

"The numbers for 2026 don't look any better than what we saw in 2025," says Alan Hoskins, president of American Farm Mortgage and Financial Services, speaking at the Top Producer Summit. "This cycle is forcing producers to completely rethink their approach-not just to numbers, but to decision-making overall."

According to Hoskins, the most immediate and widespread challenge is the sharp rise in input costs-especially for fertilizer, seed, and fuel. While most farmers are well aware of these costs, the way they manage them-and how they price their grain-can make or break a season.

"Commodity prices being where they are certainly adds to the stress," Hoskins explains. "And sometimes there's hesitation in marketing decisions that leaves farms even more exposed."

He emphasizes the need for a written marketing plan to take emotion out of pricing decisions and avoid missed sales opportunities in volatile markets.

Despite the headwinds, Hoskins insists that producers still have meaningful levers to pull, especially in cost management:

• Fertility management: "Not every field needs the same application rate," he says. "Start with your soil tests and focus on where it pays."

• Tillage decisions: Evaluate whether each pass is really adding value or whether chemical alternatives could achieve the same result at lower cost.

• Insurance coverage: With equipment and land values rising, reviewing and adjusting property and casualty insurance may free up cash flow without increasing risk.

"These decisions may not seem significant in isolation," he adds, "but collectively, they can have a major impact on your bottom line."

Hoskins urges producers to distinguish between profit and cash flow. While one may look good on paper, the other is what keeps operations running day-to-day. "It's something that should be reviewed monthly-not just at the end of the year," he advises.

USDA's recent revision to its 2025 net farm income forecast, which showed sharper-than-expected declines, aligns with what ag lenders like Hoskins are seeing on the ground: thinner working capital and more financial stress.

Many farmers are still adjusting to today's borrowing environment, where interest rates have jumped well above the historically low levels of the past two decades.

"The real challenge is mental, not mathematical," Hoskins explains. "Yes, rates are high-but they're not out of line historically. It's just that we've been in a low-rate bubble for a long time."

He advises reviewing all financing, from operating loans to equipment and land debt, and looking for restructuring opportunities. Some suppliers may also offer zero- or low-interest financing on inputs, which can ease short-term strain.

The short answer: yes-but not across the board. According to Hoskins, some producers are choosing to exit before further depleting their equity or working capital, while others may not qualify for funding to continue in 2026.

"I wouldn't call it a collapse," he says, "but we are going to see examples of both voluntary and forced exits this year."

At the heart of Hoskins' message is a call for producers to adopt a long-term mindset.

"This is as much about attitude as it is about accounting," he says. "If you know your goals-whether it's one year out or five-you'll make better decisions now."

He encourages farmers to lean on advisers, maintain transparency with lenders, and avoid short-term reactions that could compromise future viability.

"The goal is to survive this cycle, not cut so deep that you can't operate when conditions improve."

Recent USDA WASDE reports and net farm income revisions mirror the concerns seen in ag lending. Here's a snapshot of the numbers driving today's market conditions:

U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million/Billion Bushels)

Global Ending Stocks Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million Metric Tons)

Brazil and Argentina Crop Production Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million Metric Tons)

While 2026 is shaping up to be another tough year, Hoskins believes resilience and planning remain the best tools farmers have.

"We're not going to lose all of America's farmers," he says. "But it will take hard conversations and clear thinking to get through this cycle-and come out stronger."