Harvest season is typically a time of cautious optimism-but this year, U.S. farmers face mounting threats that risk turning bumper crops into financial disasters. Policy missteps around trade and tariffs are eroding the stability of the ag sector, leaving farmers to endure rising costs, evaporating export markets, and plunging commodity values.

At the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois, dozens of agricultural leaders converged to assess the fallout of uncertain trade dynamics. The absence of any fall soybean purchases from China, coupled with unsteady policy signals, points to a growing squeeze on farm margins.

"We're in a very dire situation. ... we have zero bushels of soybeans on the books to be sold to China," said American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland. That is alarming. Historically, China accounts for about 25% of U.S. soybean output, but this season, it holds nothing. Costs of production have surged due to inflation, while soybean prices have plummeted nearly 50% over three years, leaving many growers deep in the red. Ragland emphasized that the lack of a "Phase II" trade agreement and reliable market commitments are further undermining the sector.

When asked about discussions with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden, Ragland noted that "the ball's in President Trump's court." He stressed that tariffs-implemented before the show-have only exacerbated the farm economy's decline, raising production costs at precisely the wrong time.

Ever since the first trade war, trade policy continues to pose a major threat. Last time, soybeans contributed to 71% of farm losses. Now, with no new agreement in place, the situation is once again spiraling-this time under increasingly weighty political burdens.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State University agronomists warn that soybean producers in the state could lose around $207 per acre on this year's crop-a stark reminder that these policy failures translate directly into farm-level devastation. As Ragland points out, while aid programs may offer temporary relief, they remain a "Band-Aid on a big flesh wound." Farmers prefer to make their livelihoods from normal market mechanisms-but policy-induced uncertainty is obstructing that path.

Global supply dynamics are equally troubling. Stephen Nicholson of Rabobank explains that "we're building corn stocks, but not in soybeans," creating a strange global imbalance. While global supply surges put downward pressure on prices, China's absence in soybean buying is particularly worrisome. "China's a big ol' fat zero," Nicholson said, predicting the country may pivot to Brazil. The lingering impact of tariffs and distrust in U.S. policy make a rebound unlikely in the short term.

The corn outlook offers a slight silver lining: the U.S. remains competitive, especially given Brazil's distribution and infrastructure constraints. But Nicholson cautioned that even with solid export potential, prices are likely to stay low due to oversupply.

In response, the National Corn Growers Association's First VP, Jed Bower, highlighted the need to boost domestic demand, especially through E-15 ethanol. He noted, "Every 1% expansion in blending could consume half a billion bushels-5% could use 2.5billion. Yet we've been pushing this for years with little traction." Now, with farmers reeling and rural America on the brink, he lamented that policy support is only catching up once crisis hits.

Tariffs are also complicating the agricultural equipment sector. Austin Gellings of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers explained that while firms are trying to shield farmers from price hikes, long-term planning is impossible amid policy volatility-and higher costs are all but certain to reach buyers.

Seeking alternatives, Robb Ewoldt of the United Soybean Board described efforts to diversify. With China absent, USB is cultivating markets in the EU, Southeast Asia, and aquaculture, emphasizing conservation-friendly U.S. soy that aligns with carbon scoring. He also sees promise in domestic-stream strategies, particularly high-oleic soybeans, which add value for dairy through increased butterfat production. In fact, every U.S. cow consumes roughly an acre of beans per year-meaning up to 7million acres of high-oleic soy could be used domestically without relying on exports.

Still, infrastructure remains a key piece of the puzzle. USB is investing in deepening the Port of New Orleans, boosting capacity in Houston, and expanding export infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest, all aimed at moving soybean meal more efficiently and cutting costs for buyers.