U.S. fertilizer imports declined sharply in the second half of 2025 following the announcement of new tariffs by President Donald Trump, despite fertilizers being formally exempt-an important development for producers as it raises uncertainty over nutrient availability and input costs heading into the 2026 growing season.

According to economists with The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), the slowdown in imports coincided with the rollout of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) beginning in February and March 2025, followed by reciprocal tariffs from April through November. While fertilizers were excluded from those levies, market behavior suggests the broader policy environment still affected trade flows.

The U.S. fertilizer market relies on a mix of domestic production and imports, particularly for potash, while nitrogen and phosphorus supplies are split between homegrown output and foreign sourcing.

Data presented during a TFI webinar outlining the 2026 fertilizer outlook show divergent trends among key nutrients.

Nitrogen imports remained steady, with the U.S. bringing in 5.8 million short tons in both 2024 and 2025. In contrast, potash imports declined approximately 9% year over year, totaling 8.7 million short tons in 2025.

The most dramatic shift occurred in phosphorus fertilizer imports, which fell 41% compared to 2024, dropping to less than 1 million short tons. That contraction represents a significant tightening in a nutrient category critical to row crop yields, particularly corn and soybeans.

On a calendar-year basis, the pattern becomes more striking. Typically, fertilizer imports follow a seasonal rhythm: shipments early in the year, a midyear lull, and additional cargoes later as fall application approaches. In 2025, however, imports of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash all declined noticeably after April, diverging from historical norms.

Industry economists point to policy uncertainty-not the tariffs themselves-as a likely driver. A recent North Dakota State University analysis concluded that the chilling effect of tariff announcements extended beyond direct duties, discouraging trade flows even for exempted goods. Importers and global suppliers may have hesitated amid unclear regulatory and geopolitical signals.

As the industry entered 2026, inventories were not building at the pace typically seen in prior years, leaving stakeholders across the agricultural supply chain cautious.

Further complicating the landscape, the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down many of the 2025 tariffs. On the same day, however, President Trump introduced new Section 122 tariffs aimed at stabilizing exchange rates, set at 10% to 15%. These measures can remain in effect for up to 150 days-through July 24-unless Congress votes to extend them. In the Senate, continuation would require 60 votes.

Although fertilizers are expected to remain exempt under Section 122, the details remain fluid, adding another layer of uncertainty for importers, cooperatives and retailers managing nutrient procurement strategies.

Beyond domestic policy, several global dynamics could shape fertilizer supply and pricing in 2026.

Russia remains one of the three dominant global potash suppliers, alongside Canada and Belarus, and is uniquely positioned as an exporter of all three major nutrients. Given its significant exportable surplus, any shift in Russia's trade status under new tariffs could move global markets quickly.

India, the world's second-largest fertilizer consumer after China, significantly increased its urea purchases in 2025-roughly doubling volumes from 2024. While 2026 purchases may normalize, demand from India is expected to remain strong enough to influence global pricing trends.

Meanwhile, Brazil continues to expand its agricultural footprint, planting approximately 55.8 million acres and adding nearly 10 million additional acres in recent years. Brazil imports roughly 92% of its fertilizer needs and has surpassed the U.S. as the world's third-largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for about 10% of global consumption. Rising Brazilian demand could intensify competition for exportable supplies.

Geopolitical risks also loom. Iran accounts for roughly 8% of global urea exports, and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt flows in an already sensitive nitrogen market.

For U.S. producers, these intersecting factors-tariff policy, global demand shifts, and geopolitical risk-underscore the importance of proactive nutrient management strategies. Fertilizer remains one of the largest variable input costs in crop production, directly influencing yield potential, cash flow planning, and farm profitability.

As planting decisions and crop insurance coverage levels are finalized in early 2026, clarity on nutrient supply and pricing will be critical. For now, uncertainty-not scarcity-appears to be the dominant market force.