The U.S. and India are nearing a preliminary trade deal, but insiders warn that the Trump administration's aggressive demands may undermine the fragile progress made. The first phase of the pact, long pursued by both governments, hinges on avoiding political fallout in India and navigating a tight deadline set for July 8.

Negotiators have made strides on agricultural trade, energy cooperation, and technical barriers. These advances led to the official launch of trade talks in April. Still, Washington's push for sweeping Indian market access - while offering only partial U.S. tariff cuts - is drawing fire from Delhi's political class.

Domestic pressure in India remains the biggest obstacle. Political leaders are wary of being seen as yielding to a foreign government. Former Indian Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin warned, "Nothing annoys Indians more than the impression that their government caved under foreign pressure." This sentiment has been fueled by past controversies, including Trump's unsolicited comments on mediating India-Pakistan relations.

The proposed deal is expected to be completed in two stages, starting with a limited agreement covering products like fruits, nuts, alfalfa, ethanol, and some vegetables. Dairy trade remains contentious, with India pressing for time and regulatory safeguards. Without deeper U.S. concessions, Indian officials fear the optics of an unequal agreement.

From the U.S. perspective, this would mark the second major trade achievement under Trump 2.0 - following the recent tariff truce with China - and bolster his campaign's protectionist narrative. However, even former U.S. negotiators admit that this deal will require greater flexibility than prior pacts with Japan or South Korea.

In essence, the outcome of the U.S.-India talks will hinge on timing, tone, and trade-offs. Pushing too hard could cost both sides politically - especially in an election-sensitive India - while a balanced, phased deal may offer mutual economic gains and a symbolic win for global trade diplomacy.