As the U.S. milling industry assesses performance in 2025, Jane DeMarchi, president of NAMA, frames the landscape as one of cautious optimism. Her remarks came during the 2025 NAMA annual meeting in New Orleans (Oct. 9-11), where industry leaders gathered to benchmark trends amid macroeconomic headwinds.

For the second quarter of 2025, NASS data show that 222.939 million bushels of wheat were ground for flour-a 2% decline from Q1 and a 1% drop year over year. Total flour production reached 102.912 million cwts, down 2% from the prior quarter and 2% from the same period in 2024.
This moderation underscores challenges in demand, but DeMarchi emphasized the industry's capacity to navigate volatility:

"They're an amazingly resilient industry," she said, noting that members have historically adapted to shifts in consumption.

One area of particular decline was whole wheat flour production, which hit a 10-year low of 4.139 million cwts, down 5.9% sequentially and 2.3% year over year. Meanwhile, flour from wheat excluding durum fell 2.1% sequentially and 2.5% year over year to 95.089 million cwts. On the other hand, durum flour and semolina production reached 7.823 million cwts (5% sequential, +6.7% year over year), and rye flour showed a 2% sequential increase although it declined 9.9% versus 2024.

DeMarchi and other NAMA members pointed to evolving consumer behavior as a key factor. Inflation, the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss therapies, and health movements like Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) have complicated demand forecasts. Still, she struck a measured tone:

"People may change their diet ... but ultimately will usually come back to the products they know and love."

Innovation emerges as a bright spot. Millers are experimenting with high-fiber and high-protein formulations that replicate the sensory and functional qualities of refined grains. DeMarchi sees such developments as crucial amid an aging population seeking more dietary fiber.

The industry is also seeing fresh capital investments and expansions. Notable developments include:

• Greenfield Milling's new flagship mill in Richmond, Utah

• Star of the West's "super mill" expansion in Ligonier, Indiana

• Mennel Milling's acquisition of the Toledo Flour Mill from Mondelez International

These moves reflect confidence in long-term demand and a commitment to modernizing capacity.

Another frontier is biotech and trait development, particularly drought-tolerant wheat. At the meeting, NAMA's wheat division highlighted the collaboration between Bioceres Crop Solutions and the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation on the HB4 trait, which the USDA approved in August 2024. NAMA is also engaging with Corteva on hybrid wheat prospects. DeMarchi notes that while members recognize the potential of genetically engineered wheat, adoption will require alignment with consumer acceptance and rigorous performance validation.

"This is not going to happen next week," she said. "There will be time for us to see if there's real value here for drought resistance."

For U.S. agribusinesses, millers, and policymakers, the message is clear: amid modest declines in output, the U.S. milling industry is emphasizing innovation, expansion, and adaptability as it navigates shifting demand and input cost pressures.