Soybean export commitments for the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year-which begins September 1-have totaled just over 3million metric tons, the lowest volume recorded on this date in two decades. That represents a 12% year-over-year decline, reported by Zaner Ag Hedge analyst Karen Braun . Chinese buyers, historically key importers, have so far purchased no U.S. soybeans, opening the slowest market entry since at least 1999 .

This delayed entry is unprecedented: in 2005, China's first U.S. cargo landed in mid-August. If China continues its silence past that window in 2025, U.S. producers could face unprecedented trade flow disruptions .

The lull in exports comes as global competition heats up, notably from Brazil, which is shipping record soybean volumes through August-December-mirroring 2023's export pace .

Weakened Chinese Demand and Excess Inventory

Recent reporting from Reuters reveals that China's soybean appetite is likely to soften in the US peak marketing season, following record imports earlier in 2025 and subdued feed demand that have inflated domestic soymeal inventories . Analysts warn that flat third-quarter prices and potential losses for crushers may depress fourth-quarter import volumes further .

Moreover, Chinese crushers are grappling with capacity constraints-some plants have already paused operations due to storage pile-up .

Pivot to Argentina: A Strategic Shift

In a strategic pivot, China is turning strongly toward Argentina, where it recently signed a letter of intent to purchase approximately $900 million worth of soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil . This move reflects ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and Beijing's push to circumvent American tariffs by diversifying sourcing in South America.

Chinese trading house Cofco International and Sinograin have voiced intent to expand soybean and oilseed imports from Argentina and explore additional long-term cooperation .

What This Means for U.S. Farmers & Stakeholders

For producers, agronomists, policymakers, and investors, this shift carries significant implications:

• Commodity prices may experience downward pressure if Chinese demand remains delayed or shifts permanently.

• Farm supply chain strategies-including input costs, crop insurance decisions, and marketing plans-should reflect increased competition from South American exporters.

• Precision agriculture adoption may mitigate risk by optimizing yield and reducing costs amid pricing volatility.

• Policy watchers and co-op managers should prepare for possible USDA supply interventions, marketing assistance, or farm bill adjustments to support growers during trade uncertainty.

Quick Recap

• New-crop U.S. soybean export sales at a 20-year low, down 12% from 2024.

• China has not purchased U.S. soybeans yet-late market entry historically unprecedented.

• China's softening demand and high soymeal inventories pressure prices.

• Argentina emerges as a strategic supplier via a major purchase agreement.

• U.S. producers must reassess marketing plans, risk management, and policy adaptation amid changing global dynamics.