Chinese commodity buyers continue to hold off on purchasing U.S. soybeans and other key agricultural goods, deepening trade uncertainty at a critical moment for American farmers. Analysts increasingly view Beijing's restraint as a deliberate strategy to strengthen its bargaining position in ongoing trade discussions, and without a political breakthrough, Chinese purchases may not resume until early 2026.

As of late August, no future sales of U.S. soybeans, corn, wheat, or sorghum had been booked by Chinese importers. This data, confirmed by North Dakota State University (NDSU), marks a stark deviation from seasonal norms. U.S. soybean exports typically ramp up in September and October, but this year there's no sign of demand from what has historically been the largest customer.

This slowdown is especially damaging for the soybean industry, which relies on China for approximately 50% of total export volume. Industry experts agree that the sector's concern is well-founded. China's ongoing 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans makes American product less competitive against Brazil, which has rapidly expanded its market share. Unlike in 2018, when trade tensions caught China off guard, Chinese importers were prepared this time, stockpiling roughly 50 million tons of soybeans between May and August, with around 6.8 million tons in commercial reserves by the end of August.

"They've really front-loaded imports this year," said Matthew Nicol, a trade analyst with China Policy. "That allows them to delay U.S. purchases without risking crushers running dry." According to Nicol, this strategy gives Beijing the flexibility to ride out the U.S. export window while signaling that their winter soybean supply is secure, even without any new U.S. volumes.

The implications are far-reaching. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects export losses for 2025-26 that exceed the damage seen during Trump's first term. The soybean futures market has reacted accordingly, with prices in key regions falling below $8.50 per bushel, well under the breakeven point. At the same time, demand from alternative buyers-such as domestic processors and the ethanol industry-cannot compensate for the volume lost to China.

China's soybean imports from Brazil have been elevated in recent months

Brazil's monthly soybean exports to China, 2018-2025, million metric tons

This freeze isn't limited to soybeans. Chinese buyers historically account for 90% of U.S. sorghum exports, but with no new orders on the books, sorghum producers are also feeling the squeeze. "We're at a critical time," said Tim Lust, CEO of the National Sorghum Producers. Lust emphasized the urgency of a political resolution, perhaps similar to the Phase One agreement signed in 2020, which included binding commitments for China to purchase U.S. commodities.

However, diplomatic progress remains elusive. U.S. and Chinese officials met recently in Madrid to discuss economic issues-their fourth such meeting since Trump's second term began-but agricultural trade was not part of the public agenda. Analysts like Nicol doubt that a new deal focused on ag purchases is forthcoming, especially given China's recent efforts to reduce dependency on U.S. agricultural commodities through expanded domestic production and diversified import sourcing.

With Brazil's soybean prices climbing due to increased demand, and U.S. prices declining, some economists believe market forces may eventually drive Chinese buyers back to the U.S. "It's probably just going to come in fits and starts," said Texas Tech's Darren Hudson, noting that once U.S. prices become sufficiently attractive, economic necessity may override politics.

Yet, delays may still prove costly. Former USDA economist Fred Gale warns that Chinese soybean crushing margins could turn negative by year's end, prompting a potential shift back to U.S. suppliers. Nicol adds that if Brazil's old crop dwindles between January and March before the new harvests from South America arrive, China risks overpaying-especially if weather events disrupt yields.

Meanwhile, the extended lull in export activity is taking a toll on the U.S. supply chain. Railroads like BNSF and Union Pacific have adjusted rates, cutting shuttle tariffs to Gulf and Mexico routes more steeply than to Pacific ports, which remain underutilized. Storage facilities face pressure too: with unsold crops accumulating, bean bag storage-mostly imported from China-is becoming harder to obtain due to new tariffs, while longer-term solutions require steel and aluminum, now subject to additional duties.

"Pressure continues to mount at both the farmer and industry level," Lust said. With low commodity prices, rising transport costs, and limited market outlets, many producers are left navigating one of the toughest trade climates in recent memory.

If no political solution is reached, the sector may remain stalled until Brazil's next harvest cycle begins in March-leaving U.S. agriculture to absorb billions in export losses, and potentially reshaping global grain trade for years to come.