As the U.S. beef herd fell to 94.2 million head this July-the lowest since the early 1950s-Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is signaling plans to support herd rebuilding through non-monetary incentives, focusing on land access and industry diversification.

Speaking at the Ag Outlook Forum in Kansas City, Rollins teased a strategy centered on "opening up more working lands," bolstering risk mitigation tools, and "inspiring the next generation of farmers." She emphasized that USDA will not offer direct payments to producers, noting that government intervention often distorts market dynamics.

While the official announcement is expected in mid-October and may involve collaboration with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, economists say signs of herd expansion are already emerging. Don Close, an economist at Terrain, says producers are beginning to retain heifers, a key indicator of rebuilding, even if formal data hasn't confirmed it.

Current retail beef prices reflect tight supply and high demand. In August, ground beef averaged $6.58 per pound, the highest on record since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking in 1984.

Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen's Association, praised Rollins for rejecting direct payments, warning that such policies could "mess with the market." He added that high prices alone will drive ranchers to keep more heifers and begin gradual expansion.

Kansas State economist Glynn Tonsor expects visible expansion by next summer. Terrain's Close agrees, noting the U.S. has undergone seven years of liquidation, leaving fewer cows to harvest. Still, any rebuild will be slower than in 2015, when a sharp recovery ended abruptly and hurt many producers.

Rollins' plan could center on increasing stocking rates and expanding access to Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Forest Service lands. Currently, BLM permits about 17,000 livestock operators, up from 15,751 in FY2010. Forest Service authorizations have declined from 6,329 in FY2010 to 5,364 in 2021.

However, land-use policy experts caution that opening previously retired or underused lands could create tension. Jonathan Wood of the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) warned that reversing voluntary conservation agreements could trigger lawsuits from environmental groups.

While some 33 million acres of federal land were unused for grazing in 2015, many of those were voluntarily retired. Wood added that although each agency controls over 100 million acres potentially available for expanded grazing, issues such as low-quality forage and remote terrain reduce viability.

Even as expansion takes root, beef production efficiency means it may take less time to reach the next herd peak. "The gap between trough and peak is narrowing," said Tonsor, pointing to advances that allow more beef to be produced per animal.