On Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its February Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, offering critical updates on the 2025-26 crop season. While February WASDEs tend to be lower impact following January's adjustments, this edition arrives with fresh field-level data from South America, giving analysts a sharper view of global corn, soybean, and wheat supply.

Global grain markets have been volatile since USDA's bearish January surprise, and South American conditions could drive new shifts in commodity prices, U.S. exports, and planting strategy as spring nears.

The January 12 WASDE  rattled corn markets with surprise increases in U.S. supply, triggering the largest single-day drop in corn futures in over two years. While prices have since rebounded modestly, the February report is expected to shift focus from supply to usage, especially exports, which are currently 31% ahead of last year.

USDA may remain cautious on raising its export forecast, based on past patterns. Analysts expect U.S. corn ending stocks to rise to 2.26 billion bushels, potentially the largest in nine years, though the actual figure may shift as feed and residual demand evolves post-cattle inventory reductions.

In South America, Brazil's first corn harvest is underway, with 14% to 7% yield increases in key states. The Dow Jones trade estimate sees Brazil's corn production rising to 132.6 MMT, up 1.6 MMT from January. In Argentina, however, dry conditions have hurt early corn, with forecasts potentially lowered to 52.9 MMT.

Soybean futures rallied sharply after a social media post by former President Trump hinted at increased Chinese commitments. While USDA is unlikely to factor in speculative statements, export and crush demand trends are being closely monitored.

Current export commitments are 20% below last year, but USDA is already projecting a 16% year-over-year drop, suggesting no immediate need for revision. Crush demand, however, is running 7.5% above last year, supporting stable domestic use.

Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing quickly, with 25% of Mato Grosso's crop already harvested. Yields look strong, and total production may rise above 179.2 MMT-possibly exceeding 180 MMT. Argentina's outlook is more uncertain, with January dryness affecting pod development. USDA may keep forecasts near 48.5 MMT unless conditions worsen.

Wheat has seen modest price gains in early 2026, but fundamentals remain mixed. After a 25-million-bushel upward revision in January, trade now expects a 10 mb reduction in U.S. ending stocks, likely tied to export growth, which is up 18% year-over-year.

Globally, wheat stockpiles are projected to hold at 278.3 MMT-the highest in five years. This comes after a six-month stretch where global wheat production rose 35 MMT. No major changes are expected in February, though all eyes are on India's upcoming harvest, which USDA will address in May.

Here is the summary table of trade estimates for February 2026:

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) - 2025-26

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons) - 2025-26

WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) - 2025-26

Corn Production

Soybean Production

Markets will be watching USDA's tone around South American harvest progress, U.S. export momentum, and how cautious the agency remains in adjusting figures this early in the season. Given lingering uncertainty around weather, logistics, and political risk, the February WASDE may offer more clarity on trajectory than resolution.

Stay tuned as USDA releases the full report at 11 a.m. CST on Tuesday, Feb. 10.