USDA Cuts Corn Ending Stocks, Defying Trade Expectations in February WASDE
The USDA surprised markets by lowering U.S. corn ending stocks, reshaping supply outlooks as global balances and South American crops stay in focus.
WASHINGTON, Feb. 10, 2026 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its February 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today, lowering U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 despite trade expectations for an increase, a move that matters because it tightens the U.S. balance sheet amid strong export demand and ongoing uncertainty around global supplies and South American production.
The report delivered mixed signals across major crops. Corn stocks moved lower, soybeans were left unchanged domestically, and wheat stocks edged higher in the U.S., while global ending stocks for corn and wheat declined. Markets largely viewed the update as neutral, but the corn adjustment stood out for producers watching prices and export-driven demand.
USDA cut U.S. corn ending stocks month-over-month, citing stronger exports, while soybean ending stocks remained unchanged and wheat stocks increased, contrary to average trade expectations.
U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million/Billion Bushels)
| Crop | February (USDA) | Trade Expectation | January (USDA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 2.127 B | 2.230 B | 2.227 B |
| Soybeans | 350 M | 347 M | 350 M |
| Wheat | 931 M | 920 M | 926 M |
According to USDA, corn exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting strong sales and shipments. With no supply changes and higher use, ending stocks fell to roughly 2.1 billion bushels, tightening the outlook.
For wheat, USDA pointed to slightly lower domestic food use, partially offset by higher seed use, pushing ending stocks to 931 million bushels, the largest since 2019/2020.
On the global front, USDA lowered 2025/2026 ending stocks for corn and wheat, both below trade expectations, while soybean stocks came in above expectations, reinforcing the idea of ample global oilseed supplies.
Global Ending Stocks Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million Metric Tons)
| Crop | February (USDA) | Trade Expectation | January (USDA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 289.0 M | 290.5 M | 290.9 M |
| Soybeans | 125.5 M | 125.3 M | 124.4 M |
| Wheat | 277.5 M | 278.2 M | 278.3 M |
Despite the monthly dip, global soybean ending stocks remain historically large, a factor likely to continue weighing on prices and market sentiment.
USDA made only one notable adjustment to South American production estimates, raising Brazil's soybean crop above both January levels and average trade expectations. Corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged.
Brazil and Argentina Crop Production Estimates - 2025/2026 (Million Metric Tons)
| Crop | February (USDA) | Trade Expectation | January (USDA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Corn | 131.0 M | 132.6 M | 131.0 M |
| Brazil Soybeans | 180.0 M | 179.4 M | 178.0 M |
| Argentina Corn | 53.0 M | 52.9 M | 53.0 M |
| Argentina Soybeans | 48.5 M | 48.4 M | 48.5 M |
The larger Brazilian soybean crop underscores South America's growing role in global supply chains, particularly as markets shift attention to harvest progress and logistics.
Market analysts described the February WASDE as largely neutral, consistent with seasonal patterns.
Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing noted that the report lacked major demand-side surprises, highlighting unchanged U.S. soybean stocks at a comfortable 350 million bushels and record-large global soybean supplies.
Jeremy McCann of Farmer's Keeper said that while lower corn carryout is welcome, the price response was underwhelming. Market focus now turns to South American harvest results and upcoming North American planting decisions, which will shape the next phase of price discovery.
