The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July 10, providing the first comprehensive update since the June acreage and grain stocks reports. The release is expected to influence grain prices by updating production, ending stocks and global supply estimates at a time when weather conditions are becoming the dominant factor for corn and soybean yield potential. With pollination underway and export demand strengthening, the report could shape market sentiment for the remainder of the growing season.

Corn futures have recently recovered from contract lows as traders rebuild a weather premium ahead of the critical pollination period. Market expectations point to lower U.S. old-crop corn ending stocks, averaging 2.077 billion bushels, supported by stronger export demand that continues to exceed USDA's previous projections. For the new crop, analysts expect production to remain close to 16 billion bushels, with little change in the national yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre. However, projected 2026/27 ending stocks could decline below 1.9 billion bushels, tightening supplies and increasing sensitivity to any adverse weather during July.

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Soybeans and Wheat Face Different Supply Stories

Soybeans continue attracting market attention as Chinese buying and weather uncertainty keep traders focused on the U.S. balance sheet. While analysts expect USDA to leave the national yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, export demand has improved significantly, leaving little room for production shortfalls later this summer. Consensus estimates place 2026/27 soybean ending stocks near 324 million bushels, although favorable weather over the next two months will ultimately determine whether inventories remain comfortable. Wheat presents a different outlook, with the smallest harvested acreage in nearly 150 years expected to limit production despite relatively stable yields. As a result, new-crop wheat ending stocks are projected near 710 million bushels, potentially the lowest level in several marketing years.

Key USDA Expectations Ahead of the July WASDE

U.S. Production Forecast 2026/27 (Million Bushels)

Expected U.S. Ending Stocks 2025/26 (Million Bushels)

Expected U.S. Ending Stocks 2026/27 (Million Bushels)

Expected World Ending Stocks 2025/26 (Million Metric Tons)

Expected World Ending Stocks 2026/27 (Million Metric Tons)

Expected World Corn Production 2025/26 (Million Metric Tons)

Expected World Soybean Production 2025/26 (Million Metric Tons)

Beyond the U.S. balance sheets, global weather remains the largest source of uncertainty heading into the report. Historic heat and drought across parts of Europe threaten corn and wheat yields, while Brazil and Argentina are still expected to deliver record or near-record harvests, helping offset tighter supplies elsewhere. Even if Friday's report contains only modest revisions, traders are expected to place greater emphasis on weather forecasts throughout July, when corn pollination and soybean development will largely determine final yields. That means the July WASDE may establish the market's baseline, but weather will likely decide the direction of grain prices through the remainder of the summer.