Corn, Soybean Stocks in Focus Ahead of USDA Report: Markets Brace for Surprises
Lower inventories, global trade shifts, and weather patterns could set the tone for fall pricing.
The U.S. grain market is bracing for a pivotal moment next week when the USDA releases its September quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. The data could deliver surprises that shift the landscape for corn, soybeans, and wheat-just as harvest ramps up across much of the Midwest.
Corn futures drifted lower overnight while soybeans followed suit amid sluggish export sales. Yet all eyes are on the expected inventory adjustments, particularly with export demand, drought conditions, and global competition putting added pressure on U.S. ag markets.
"This report could dramatically reshape the supply outlook for the 2025-26 marketing year," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing. Traders should prepare for possible revisions to prior-year production and usage estimates as USDA reconciles old-crop balances.
Below is a snapshot of the current trade expectations and USDA's historical figures:
U.S. Stocks as of Sept. 1, 2025
(All figures in billions of bushels)
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average trade estimate | 2.043 | 1.337 | 0.323 |
| USDA June 1, 2025 | 0.851 | 4.644 | 0.330 |
| USDA Sept. 1, 2024 | 1.992 | 1.763 | 0.342 |
U.S. Wheat Production 2025-26
(All figures in billions of bushels)
| Average Estimate | USDA August | 2024-25 | |
| All wheat | 1.925 | 1.927 | 1.971 |
| All winter wheat | 1.354 | 1.355 | 1.349 |
| HRW wheat | 0.768 | 0.769 | 0.770 |
| SRW wheat | 0.340 | 0.339 | 0.342 |
| Other spring | 0.484 | 0.484 | 0.542 |
December corn futures are caught in a sideways trend, hovering around $4.25 per bushel as markets digest mixed signals: strong export sales to Mexico and other buyers, yet disappointing early yield reports and uncertain harvest weather.
Weekly export sales for 2025-26 reached 1.923 million metric tons, a 56% rise from the previous week. Commitments now total 1.014 billion bushels, about 34% of USDA's full-year estimate.
Yet, technicals are showing softness as prices dip below trendlines and test support zones near $4.18-$4.23.
Soybeans Under Pressure Amid Export Slump
November soybean futures slipped to $10.1150 overnight, weighed down by another lackluster export report. Weekly sales totaled just 724,500 metric tons, well below last year's pace, and China remains absent from the U.S. market.
Recent buying from Argentina, driven by a temporary tax holiday, added more competition. Argentina reportedly shipped 47.8 million bushels to China in one week, intensifying pressure on U.S. growers.
USDA recently lowered its soybean export estimate to 1.685 billion bushels, and analysts suggest it could fall further.
SRW and HRW wheat futures are showing modest recovery this week, supported by stronger-than-expected weekly export sales (539,800 MT) and technical signals hinting at a short-covering rally. Still, ample global supply-from Russia to the EU-continues to limit upside potential.
Spring wheat remains a wildcard in the USDA report, with forecasts diverging from crop condition ratings. Some expect a correction in production figures.
