Grain and soybean futures showed little movement overnight as U.S. agriculture faces a rare mix of political and climatic uncertainty. With the government shutdown now in its seventh day, traders are left without access to key market data-including crop progress, export sales, and trader positions from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The WASDE report, due out tomorrow, may be postponed or canceled, further compounding the information gap.

At the same time, China has yet to purchase any new-crop U.S. soybeans this year, a troubling sign for producers amid escalating trade tensions. Despite being the world's top soybean importer, China's absence from U.S. markets has frozen a key demand driver. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet with President Xi Jinping at the end of the month to address trade issues, but until commitments materialize, market sentiment remains cautious.

Overnight price movements reflected this hesitation. Corn slipped to $4.19 1/2 per bushel, wheat declined to $5.05 3/4, and Kansas City wheat dropped to $4.90. Soybeans edged up to $10.23 1/2, while soymeal dipped to $276/short ton, and soy oil rose to 51.42¢/lb.

Meanwhile, weather disruptions add pressure in the field. In Kansas-the largest producer of winter wheat-persistent rains have slowed planting progress, particularly in central and eastern counties. According to Aaron Harries of Kansas Wheat, "Rains in the central part of the state have things moving slow with farmers out of the field." As of September 28, only 17% of Kansas winter wheat was planted, compared to a five-year average of 30%. The national rate stood at 34%-slightly behind the historical pace.

Despite delays, soil moisture profiles look favorable, and the upcoming week is expected to support continued planting and harvest efforts.

Further west, thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Plains, while the northern Corn Belt braces for an early end to the growing season. The National Weather Service issued freeze warnings for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, with overnight lows dropping into the low 20s. The agency warned that "widespread below-freezing temperatures are expected to bring an end to the growing season."

As the 2025 harvest accelerates, farmers face a landscape clouded by missing market signals, foreign policy uncertainty, and unpredictable weather. For now, markets remain cautious, and producers are left waiting for clarity.