In the midst of ongoing trade tensions, China appears increasingly capable of meeting its soybean demand solely through Mercosur - chiefly Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay - without relying on U.S. exports, at least until the next South American harvest. The implications of this shift could be profound for U.S. commodity producers, input costs, and trade policy.

Recent import statistics are striking. In August 2025, China imported 12.2 million tonnes of soybeans - a record for that month - mostly from Brazil, with Argentina and Uruguay contributing smaller but significant shipments. With that month added, China's total imports for the marketing year (October-September) have already reached 96.5 million tonnes, and all indicators suggest this will cross the 100-million-tonne mark by the end of the current cycle. (Source: Rosario Board of Trade)

Analysts estimate that Chinese soybean imports will total 106.4 million tonnes for the 2024/25 campaign, producing an estimated surplus of roughly 12.3 million tonnes relative to expected Chinese consumption. This surplus allows China flexibility, giving it a cushion in case of supply disruptions or continued trade barriers with the U.S.

China: Soybean Imports

@BCRMarkets based on China Customs data, by Chinese marketing year.

The seasonal pattern of soybean sourcing is also important. Between October and February, the U.S. has traditionally dominated as China's supplier, taking advantage of its harvest and export logistics. But as the South American harvest picks up (generally from March onwards), Brazil and Argentina flood the market, pushing U.S. competitiveness downward. Projections suggest that of the U.S.-China import window between October-February for 2025/26, 36.4 million tonnes could be expected - but only 24.1 million tonnes might be needed given existing surplus stock and imports from Mercosur.

On availability, Brazil is reported to have about 27 million tonnes of soybeans available for export without sacrificing its domestic crushing or industrial usage. Argentina has already shipped 8.8 million tonnes in the 2024/25 cycle, with 3.5 million tonnes still pending shipment. Together, Brazil and Argentina could supply 30.4 million tonnes of soybeans to China in this period - ostensibly enough to cover what China might otherwise have sourced from the U.S.

What this all adds up to is a scenario where, if trade negotiations fail or tariff barriers remain, the U.S. could lose one of its most important export markets in the time of year when it most needs it. Evidence already shows U.S. FOB (Free On Board) prices for soybeans being pressured by competition from Mercosur origins.

For U.S. agriculture professionals - producers, co-ops, exporters - this means heightened exposure to risks tied to trade policy, tariffs, market diversification, and supply chain strategy. It also underscores the importance of crop insurance, precision agriculture to optimize yields and competitiveness, and of following developments in the Farm Bill and U.S.-China trade talks, which may determine whether U.S. soy can regain or at least defend its relevance in China's soybean import mix.