For U.S. readers, metric tons and metric prices have been supplemented with approximate U.S. equivalents. One metric ton equals approximately 36.74 bushels of wheat. US$/bushel conversions are approximate and are provided for market-reference purposes.

The international wheat market continues to show significant differentiation across origins, quality specifications and logistics risk, helping explain the wide price spreads currently seen among the world's leading exporters.

Russian wheat with 12.5% protein remains the cheapest among major exporters at US$214.25 per metric ton (approximately US$5.83/bushel), while U.S. hard wheat with 12% protein and Canadian wheat with 13.5% protein are trading near US$345-350/metric ton (roughly US$9.39-9.53/bushel).

The difference is not simply a matter of supply. It also reflects quality, protein content, logistics reliability and the actual ability to deliver the grain.

In recent weeks, Black Sea risk has once again gained importance, while Asian buyers have begun seeking alternatives in Argentina and Australia amid delays affecting Russian and Ukrainian cargoes. Intensifying attacks on infrastructure and navigation have reduced the predictability of trade flows from a region that remains a major supplier to the global wheat market.

Argentina remains a key reference for Brazil

In Argentina, old-crop wheat with 11% protein remains around US$260/metric ton (approximately US$7.08/bushel), unchanged for the week but up 13.0% for the month and 15.6% over the past 12 months.

Available data show that approximately 15.9 million metric tons (about 584 million bushels) of wheat from the 2015/16 season - which ends in November - have been marketed so far. For the new 2026/27 crop, the volume stands at 3.2 million metric tons (approximately 118 million bushels).

In the field, conditions for the new crop remain uneven. Central and southern areas are predominantly favorable, but lack of rainfall in northern and western regions, combined with concerns about disease, is adding a risk premium.

For Brazil, Argentina remains the most direct external benchmark, both because of its geographic proximity and the countries' commercial integration.

However, Argentine wheat with 11% protein is lower in quality than higher-protein alternatives. Its price, therefore, should not be compared directly with U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat or Canadian wheat without considering the technological and blending requirements of flour mills.

United States: quality wheat retains a substantial premium

In the United States, this differentiation is particularly clear. Soft wheat traded in Chicago is equivalent to US$304.05/metric ton (approximately US$8.28/bushel), down 1.7% for the week but still up 14.9% for the month and 31.1% over the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, 12% HRW wheat, a benchmark much closer to the stronger wheat used as an improver by Brazil's milling industry, is quoted at US$344.84/metric ton (approximately US$9.39/bushel). Despite a 2.6% weekly decline, it has appreciated 45.6% from a year earlier.

The recent correction follows a strong rally in futures markets and, for now, does not represent a structural reversal.

Weekly wheat inspections fell to 342,700 metric tons (approximately 12.6 million bushels), while cumulative U.S. shipments for the season remain below the previous year's level, temporarily reducing support from export demand.

For Brazil, however, HRW remains especially important because of its stronger gluten characteristics and higher protein content, making it one of the leading alternatives whenever available Argentine wheat fails to meet industrial specifications.

Black Sea: cheap wheat comes with a growing logistics premium

The Black Sea remains the main source of distortion between nominal prices and effective availability.

Russian wheat with 12.5% protein declined 0.5% for the week and 6.2% for the month to US$214.25/metric ton (approximately US$5.83/bushel), putting it 7.3% below its year-ago level.

From a fundamental standpoint, Russia has a large crop, while the removal of export tariffs through the end of December is expected to improve its competitiveness.

The problem is the ability to turn that supply into consistent and reliable shipments.

Russian wheat exports in August totaled only 1.3 million metric tons (approximately 47.8 million bushels), a sharp decline from the same period in 2025, highlighting the effects of logistics restrictions and attacks affecting the Azov-Black Sea corridor.

The lack of progress in peace negotiations continues to sustain this risk premium. As a result, Russian wheat remains extremely competitive on paper, but carries a growing implicit cost associated with freight, insurance, delivery times and shipment security.

For Brazil, its use also remains constrained by phytosanitary considerations. Santos can receive Russian wheat for processing along the coast, but Russian grain does not have the same logistics flexibility for supplying inland mills. This reduces its ability to directly arbitrage Brazilian domestic wheat prices.

Ukraine: production is available, but market access is the challenge

Ukraine, despite having an almost fully harvested crop of 24.91 million metric tons (approximately 915 million bushels), is showing the opposite short-term price behavior from Russia.

The price of 12.5% protein wheat increased 3.4% for the week to US$225.25/metric ton (approximately US$6.13/bushel) and is up 3.9% for the month.

The fact that prices are rising despite the arrival of the new crop reinforces the idea that the current bottleneck is not necessarily production, but access to international markets.

Attacks on ports, vessels and infrastructure have increased shipping risks in both Ukraine and Russia. Recent estimates point to a significant reduction in regional trade flows and a diversion of demand toward alternative suppliers.

Ukraine, however, developed more established alternative export routes during years of Russian naval restrictions in the Black Sea.

Overall, Russian and Ukrainian wheat - both with 12.5% protein and among the world's cheapest origins - demonstrate that the Black Sea's theoretical price advantage remains substantial compared with competing suppliers. However, that advantage is being partially offset by operational and logistics risk.

European wheat could gain market share

In the European Union, Germany and France are reflecting price appreciation generated by the same external shock, although their wheat differs in quality.

German wheat with 12% protein is quoted at US$293.65/metric ton (approximately US$7.99/bushel), up 2.1% for the week, 14.5% for the month and 25.6% year over year.

French wheat with 11% protein stands at US$275.25/metric ton (approximately US$7.49/bushel). It fell 2.4% for the week but remains 8.5% higher for the month and 22.9% higher over the past 12 months.

France is facing wheat production below 32 million metric tons (approximately 1.18 billion bushels) following periods of heat, although relatively high beginning stocks continue to provide available supply.

Difficulties in the Black Sea, however, could create additional commercial opportunities for European wheat.

The approximately US$18/metric ton spread - about US$0.49/bushel - between German and French wheat is partly consistent with their respective specifications: 12% protein in Germany versus 11% in France. That makes German wheat more comparable with higher-quality milling wheat.

Canada maintains its quality premium

Among suppliers of higher-quality wheat, Canada remains at the top of the price range, with 13.5% protein wheat quoted at US$349.84/metric ton (approximately US$9.52/bushel).

The price declined 2.5% for the week but remains 10.0% higher for the month and an impressive 38.0% above its year-ago level.

This premium should not simply be interpreted as expensive wheat. It reflects the highest protein content among the benchmarks analyzed, targeting markets that require stronger gluten performance and superior milling characteristics.

Canada is expected to produce approximately 30 million metric tons of non-durum wheat in 2026/27 - roughly 1.10 billion bushels - below the previous season. Ending stocks are also expected to decline and remain below recent averages.

International demand for Canada's available high-protein wheat is expected to remain strong. Against that backdrop, it is reasonable for Canadian wheat to retain a structural premium over supplies from Argentina, France, Russia and Australia.

Australia gains importance among Asian buyers

Australian wheat, CIF China with 12% protein, declined 1.2% for the week to US$276.95/metric ton (approximately US$7.54/bushel), but remains 3.2% above last month and 19.2% higher than a year earlier.

Australian supply has gained additional importance in recent weeks as Asian buyers replace delayed Black Sea cargoes with wheat from Australia and Argentina.

The local government estimates production at 29.9 million metric tons (approximately 1.10 billion bushels), down 17% from the previous crop but still 3% above the 10-year average.

The combination of lower production and emergency Asian demand is helping support Australian wheat prices despite the modest weekly correction.

Ultimately, the current global wheat market shows that the cheapest nominal offer is not necessarily the most competitive supply once protein content, milling quality, freight, insurance, phytosanitary restrictions and delivery reliability are taken into account.

For importers and millers, particularly in markets such as Brazil, evaluating wheat origins increasingly requires looking beyond FOB prices. In today's market, quality and logistics security have become part of the price itself.

By Elcio Bento: Market Intelligence Specialist - Wheat | Safras & Mercado

Editor's Note: This opinion column was originally written in Portuguese. The AgroLatam editorial team translated and adapted it into English, preserving the author's original content, data, opinions and analytical perspective. Metric-ton volumes and prices have been supplemented with approximate U.S. bushel equivalents to make the information easier to interpret for the U.S. market.