In its August 2025 Crop Production and WASDE reports, the USDA significantly raised expectations for U.S. corn yield, harvested acreage, and total production. The new figures put 2025/26 corn output at a record 16.7 billion bushels, an increase of 1 billion bushels from July, driven by a 1.9 million-acre expansion in harvested area and a record 188.8 bushels per acre yield forecast - 7.8 bushels higher than last month.

If realized, this would surpass the previous record from 2023/24 by 1.4 billion bushels. Total corn use is projected at 16 billion bushels, including record-high exports of 2.9 billion, supported by competitive U.S. pricing and relatively low global market prices. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to hit 2.1 billion bushels, the highest since 2018/19.

Soybean Production Down Despite Higher Yields

Soybean yield projections rose to 53.6 bushels per acre, up 1.1 from July. However, a 2.4 million-acre drop in harvested area drove production down to 4.3 billion bushels - 43 million less than last month's forecast. Exports are trimmed by 40 million bushels due to sluggish sales, while crush remains steady at 2.54 billion bushels. Ending stocks are now pegged at 290 million bushels, 20 million below July estimates.

Wheat Sees Tighter Supplies but Stronger Export Pace

For wheat, production is down 2 million bushels to 1.927 billion, with declines in hard red spring and white wheat partially offset by increases in hard red winter, durum, and soft red winter varieties. The all-wheat yield nudged slightly higher to 52.7 bushels per acre. Despite reduced domestic food use, exports are forecast to rise by 25 million bushels to 875 million, supported by strong early-season shipments. Ending stocks are lowered to 869 million bushels.

Trade Reaction: Skepticism Over Corn Forecast

Jeremy McCann of Farmer's Keeper called the corn projections "a shock," noting the significant jump in yield and acreage despite ongoing drought stress and disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt. "This is a big crop, but I'd be surprised if these numbers don't get revised lower by January," he said. On soybeans, McCann highlighted the need for stronger Chinese demand to sustain any market rally.

With harvest season approaching, the USDA's projections set a new tone for commodity price risk management, export strategies, and farm income expectations across the U.S. ag sector.