This season should be a high point for soybean marketers in the U.S. Midwest, as farmers begin harvesting what USDA has forecasted as a 4.1-billion-bushel crop. But in 2025, Chinese importers have abstained from purchasing a single cargo, leaving a gaping hole in the world's largest soybean trade route.

Instead, China is sourcing aggressively from South America, where top producers Brazil and Argentina are offering competitive prices-especially following Argentina's decision to suspend grain export taxes, further incentivizing buyers.

The Chicago Board of Trade has seen soybean futures fall under the pressure, with prices hovering near $9.80 per bushel-well below break-even for many U.S. growers.

For farmers and grain co-ops across the Midwest, the lack of Chinese demand during peak marketing season is financially devastating. Trade analysts estimate that if current trends persist, U.S. soybean exports could drop by over 15 million metric tons compared to typical autumn volumes.

Trump, who previously touted record agricultural sales to China, is under pressure from rural constituencies to regain lost ground. His upcoming meeting with Xi is expected to address not only soybeans, but broader trade imbalances, TikTok regulations, illicit drug flows, and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Yet Beijing has signaled that it expects U.S. tariffs to be lifted before returning to large-scale agricultural purchases. That could force Trump into a delicate negotiation: defend U.S. tariffs or secure vital export revenue for the farm economy.

With commodity prices under strain and input costs still elevated from inflationary pressures, U.S. farmers are watching the Trump-Xi summit with mounting urgency.

This isn't the first time soybeans have been caught in the crossfire of geopolitics-but the current impasse, coming at a time of surging South American supply and global price volatility, threatens to lock U.S. producers out of a crucial market just when they need it most.

If Trump can't secure a reversal, experts warn that China's shift toward Latin America could become permanent, reshaping the global soy supply chain-and sidelining the U.S. for seasons to come.